One Battle After Another is clearly the film to beat, and Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Frankenstein are the contenders who appear to be most up to the task. All five should almost certainly hear their name called with nominees are announced, with Sentimental Value and Train Dreams also good bets to join that list.
Ben Zauzmer is a contributing writer for The Hollywood Reporter and the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.'One Battle After Another,' 'Sinners,' 'Hamnet,' 'Marty Supreme,' 'Frankenstein' and 'Sentimental Value' lead Ben Zauzmer's math model in the Oscar best picture race.
It might feel as if this year’s best picture race was over before it began. Paul Thomas Anderson’searned top honors from the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes and a host of critic circles, not to mention key nominations from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild and many others.mathematical prediction of the Oscars nominees, keep in mind that all of the following films notched every single honor mentioned in the previous paragraph:What probability, exactly? That’s where I come in. We’ll get to the odds of winning each category in March, but for now, we can calculate the odds that every potential nominee gets invited to the ceremony. My model combines all of the information we have on awards season thus far — weighting each input by how predictive it has been in the past in each category — to give us a sense of the race. Since the Academy expanded to 10 best picture nominees, an average of 9/10 of the top candidates in this model went on to hear their name called; we’ll see how this year’s probabilities do.are the contenders who appear to be most up to the task. All five should almost certainly hear their name called with nominees are announced, withis just over 1-in-2. No other film even reaches 1-in-3, meaning that at least one candidate will have to beat the odds to slip into the most coveted category of them all. window.addEventListener{if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});After that, we have four names between 34 percent and 63 percent, and short of a major surprise, we should expect to see two get in and two left out from this quartet. The Directors Guild opted for Josh Safdie {if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});It’s pretty rare to see this much cohesion among disparate critic groups, but there’s been a strong consensus in the data around the top five: Michael B. Jordan . Perhaps the exception is Moura getting left out of an Actor Award ceremony that overlooked a number of foreign performances, but he made up for it with a Golden Globe win.window.addEventListener{if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});) sure seemed like she’d be the fifth actress above 50 percent, but the Screen Actors Guild’s shutout of her film did her no favors. That could open the door for Amanda Seyfried {if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});It’s not entirely uncommon to see co-stars competing in the same category at the Oscars; it’s happened 75 times before. What is uncommon is when there’s no clear hierarchy between them. And yet, the math has Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn {if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});is in the lead, this time represented by Teyana Taylor. In the dozen-plus years I’ve been predicting Oscar nominations mathematically, onlyhave led in half of these eight categories at this juncture. Pretty good company, in terms of early awards season dominance.) also cautiously optimistic to hear their names called. If one of them misses the cut, it could be Odessa A’zion {if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});. It’s a popular pick to grab an original screenplay nomination, so how come the model isn’t giving the film its due?has earned a number of plaudits in best foreign language film categories, it’s struggled to gain much traction in terms of honors for its screenplay, which the model puts more stock in. That said, there may be a recent trend the algorithm hasn’t yet picked up on of precursors underestimating the awards season power of international cinema. After all, the model is 19/20 on best picture nominees over the past two years, with fellow Brazilian filmthe lone miss. If that’s the case, perhaps the top five aren’t quite as secure as the data suggests. window.addEventListener{if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});My model uses plenty of inputs to make these predictions, but two traditional predictors are notably absent this year: the BAFTAs and the Writers Guild. Both decided to calendar their nomination announcements after the Academy’s, rendering themselves a non-entity in this year’s math. That gives these predictions larger error bars than usual, and for the screenplay categories in particular. The result is a whopping six films above 60 percent. Of course, at least one of these six has to wind up disappointed, with only five spots to go around.On Thursday morning, one phase of the Oscar race will indeed be over. But the even more exciting phase will just be getting started. window.addEventListener{if{var e=document.querySelectorAll;forforif{var d=a.data+"px";r.style.height=d}}});Plus Icon The Hollywood Reporter is a part of Penske Media Corporation. © 2026 The Hollywood Reporter, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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