The founder of FiveThirtyEight said the investor class will increasingly watch betting markets.
Polymarket, rapidly becoming the most popular blockchain-based betting market, has brought on well-regarded statistician and election commentator Nate Silver as an advisor, Axios reported on Tuesday.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket has become one of the most popular sites for betting on the U.S. elections. A poll set to close on Nov. 4, 2024, asking who will win the presidential election, has over $262 million riding on it. Users currently favor former President Donald Trump, whose rankings jumped to over 70% following the weekend assassination attempt. Axios reported that Polymarket sees more than 80% of global predictions made around U.S. elections.
Polymarket, founded by native New Yorker Shayne Coplan, raised $70 million in venture capital, including from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. More than $400 million of trades have occurred on its platform in 2024 alone. However, it is not open to U.S. users due to strict Commodity Futures Trading Commission restrictions on “binary markets.”
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