Trump bests Biden in new Nate Silver election forecast
Silver’s current prediction, based on 40,000 simulations run through the model, predicts that Biden, 81, is likely to edge out Trump, 78, in the national popular vote by one-tenth of a percentage point .
The last Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote was George W. Bush when he secured re-election in 2004. “In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54 of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32 of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.”Silver vaulted to national prominence during the 2012 campaign, when he correctly predicted Barack Obama would be re-elected despite claims from conservatives that his analysis was biased against Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Also Wednesday, Trump surged ahead in a new Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters to take a four-percentage point lead over Biden, 49% to 45%.REUTERS Trump and Biden are set to square off in the first debate of the general election season Thursday in Atlanta.
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