Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Feb. 2.
That makes Monday, Feb. 2 a perfect night for a bounce-back showing after a strong January pushed this season’s record well over .500 . There are just four games to dive into on Feb. 2, but there are still three plays that I’ve made for this slate:I’m eyeing two teams to win outright, a home underdog to cover and a player prop for a role player that should step up for Houston with Kevin Durant sidelined on Monday.
Indiana Pacers +6.5 vs. Houston RocketsAnthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all questionable on Monday night, which makes it tough to place a spread bet on the Timberwolves-Grizzlies matchup. However, I do like the Wolves to win this game outright with the Grizzlies already down a plethora of role players, including star guard Ja Morant. Minnesota has won four games in a row, including a 17-point win over Memphis on Saturday, and the Grizzlies have been awful against teams that are .500 or better this season, going 4-22 straight up against them. The Grizzlies have lost six games in a row overall, falling out of the play-in tournament mix in the Western Conference. On top of that, they are 22nd in net rating over their last 10 games. Minnesota is ninth in net rating during that stretch, and that’s even with the team losing five games in a row in late January to fall in the Western Conference standings. I’d lean with both Randle and Edwards suiting up in this matchup, which could move this line in favor of the Wolves. Minnesota is just three games over .500 on the road, but it has dominated sub-.500 teams this season, going 20-6 against them. Memphis is simply too banged up to trust in this matchup on Monday.Over their last 10 games, the Hornets are on fire on both sides of the ball. They have the No. 1 offensive rating, No. 7 defensive rating and the No. 2 net rating in the league during that stretch, winning eight of those games. Charlotte is now within striking distance of a play-in spot in the East, and it’s looking to extend its winning streak to seven games against a New Orleans Pelicans squad that is 13-18 this season and just 5-19 on the road. New Orleans has struggled on the road, going 11-12 against the spread with an average scoring margin of -10.3 points per game. On top of that, the Pelicans rank 25th in the NBA in road net rating . Usually, the presence of Zion Williamson has improved New Orleans’ record substantially, but the team is just 10-25 when he plays this season. The Pelicans also rank 25th or worse in offensive, defensive and net rating while posting the No. 29 effective field goal percentage in the NBA. With Charlotte’s offense firing on all cylinders as of late, I think the Hornets are an easy bet at home on Monday night.Despite their terrible record this season, the Pacers are one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread as home underdogs, going 13-7. That’s helped Indiana to a respectable 10-16 record overall at home, despite the fact that the team has lost key players again and again this season. Indy is pretty healthy heading into Monday’s clash with Houston, as only Tyrese Haliburton and Obi Toppin have been ruled out. That should give the Pacers a chance to compete with the Rockets, who are down Kevin Durant and come into this game with some shaky road numbers. Houston is 13-13 straight up on the road and 10-12 against the spread as a road favorite. In the team’s 26 road games, it has a net rating of +4.8 – one of the best marks in the NBA – but can it keep that going without Durant? Houston is +6.8 points per 100 possessions with Durant on the floor this season, but it’s just +4.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s off. Plus, the Rockets’ clutch-time offense has struggled all season, as they’re 20th in offensive rating. If the Pacers can hang around, Houston is going to have to find someone other than Durant to carry the team down the stretch. Indy has played better as of late, winning five of its last 10 games and two in a row. While I wouldn't bet on the Pacers to win outright, I do think they can cover a two-possession spread on Monday.This season, Reed Sheppard is averaging 12.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from 3-point range. The former top-three pick has had some big games offensively this season, including a 31-point, nine-rebound, five-assist game in one of the two matchups that Durant missed. While I'm not expecting that big of a game from Sheppard, I do think he'll have an expanded role in the offense on Monday. Sheppard's points prop is up at 15.5 at DraftKings, but his rebounds and assists props have stayed relatively the same . I think that makes him a little undervalued, as someone has to initiate offense for this Houston team with Durant out. Sheppard started both of the games KD missed earlier this season, and he has scored in double figures in six of his last nine games. I wouldn't be shocked to see the second-year guard have one of his better scoring games of the season, especially since the Pacers rank 28th in the NBA in points per game allowed to opposing point guards .Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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