Students’ uncertainty about America’s next 25 years hits new low in Marc Sandalow’s most recent survey
Teaching at the University of California’s Washington Program gives me the opportunity to hear from the best and brightest, those who will take the reins when my generation rides into the sunset. They are inspiring, most with hearts of gold and a sincere passion to serve the public.
Yet they are growing increasingly cynical. I administer an anonymous survey each term to gauge these undergraduates’ knowledge of government, media habits, and political inclinations. In the fall of 2022, I added this question: “Do you believe American democracy will survive another 25 years?” While more than seven in 10 answered yes, the number still alarmed me. Rather than see the glass as nearly three-fourths full, I was stunned that so many had no confidence that the country as we know it would survive.This term, barely one out of three said they believe American democracy will survive. The remainder either said they were uncertain or predicted democracy would be gone before they reach age 50. That’s horrific. But it’s not hard to figure out why. The first time the yes responses dropped below 50% was fall 2024, when President Donald Trump was re-elected. And they continue to dip with his seemingly relentless assault on democratic norms. This term’s cohort arrived the week television aired non-stop footage of a masked ICE officer killing Renee Good in Minneapolis. On the survey, nearly two-thirds expressed some level of concern that they or someone in their family will be detained or harassed by ICE. More than a quarter reported being “quite nervous” that they or someone in their family will be detained or harassed by ICE, and more than one in 10 said they live in “constant fear.” In just the past few weeks, students have watched as Trump ordered an attack on Venezuela, insisted that the U.S. take over Greenland and called on his Justice Department to go after Jack Smith, the special prosecutor appointed to investigate Trump, calling him “a deranged animal who shouldn’t be allowed to practice law.” Asked by The New York Times if there were any constraints on his global power, Trump responded: “My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.” Ex // Top Stories Enjoy the returning sunshine with these 18 SF events Orchestral concerts, film screenings and art workshops are in store this week in The City Community organizations kick off Castro Theatre's grand opening Drag performances, dancing and an interactive film screening come to the venue next month Why Grok’s deepfakes might be protected by the Constitution The First Amendment protects speech of all kinds, even nonconsensual deepfaked bikini pictures, says Santa Clara University law professor Eric Goldman That is not democracy. Even if Trump were benevolent, charitable and wise — none of which he is — his expression of norm-shattering power is hardly what the Founding Fathers had in mind. Though my sample size is small, the results mirror findings by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, which surveyed more than 2,000 Americans under the age of 30 in November and reported that nearly two-thirds described the U.S. as “a democracy in trouble or that has already failed.” Trump supporters will argue that the lack of confidence does not come from Trump’s actions but from a fear-mongering overreaction from his opponents. I disagree, but that’s a topic for another column. What matters is that so many young people just embarking on their careers don’t believe the country will necessarily be around for them. It is too early to know the consequences, but the perception of such instability cannot be healthy. When I was their age, my classmates expressed horror and outrage at President Reagan’s election, warning that the country was headed to a worse place. But few expressed existential concerns that the country would no longer be a democracy in 25 years. Some of Trump’s deeds can be easily reversed. His name can be chiseled off the Kennedy Center and the gold stripped from the Oval Office. In time, even agencies such as USAID can be rebuilt. Other tasks will be more difficult, such as repairing relationships with allies or reducing damage to the environment. But it’s hard to quantify the lasting damage, long after Trump is gone, done to a generation that came of age during his presidency. I believe American democracy will survive far beyond 25 years. I see magnificent qualities in students that can overcome today’s cynicism and would answer “yes” were I taking the survey. I am saddened that most of my students disagree. And I am frightened at how little confidence I have that they are wrong.
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