Oaktree’s David Rosenberg says credit will trump sharemarket returns

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Oaktree’s David Rosenberg says credit will trump sharemarket returns
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High-yield bond manager David Rosenberg says we’re in a rare situation where investors can earn sharemarket-like returns from buying corporate debt.

Credit, or corporate debt investors, aren’t rewarded if they make a good investment, but they’reRosenberg, however, says this is a rare moment when he feels optimistic. High yield or sub-investment grade debt is paying double-digit returns and that means it is far more compelling to lend to a company rather than own its shares.

While these yields are high, some investors cautiously point out that the premium for owning high-yield bonds is modest relative to historic averages. The reason, he says, is that the high-yield bond market is actually in relatively good health, mainly as a side effect of the pandemic. The third trigger for a default is that a company is unable to refinance. But this is also unlikely as most companies took advantage of low-interest rates to lock in low rates and extend the maturities of their bonds.So corporate debt investors are looking to the so-called maturity walls, and they’re not too worried, at least for now, that companies can find a plan to repay them.

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