Nonfarm Payrolls March Preview: How long can plentiful jobs defray the dangers of inflation? by josephtrevisani NFP forex trading
In March 2021 Annual AHE rose 4.4% and yearly CPI was 2.6%. One year later in February, compensation had risen to 5.1%, and inflation was 7.9%.
Retail Sales were also a bit slower than expected in February at 0.3% vs the 0.4% forecast with the same upward revision to January, to 4.9% from 3.8%. So far, American consumers have not made major changes in their consumption habits even though inflation is taking an ever larger bite from the family budget.The Federal Reserve’s new anti-inflation policy projects six 0.25% rate increases by the end of the year. This goal is necessarily conditional on US economic growth. estimate from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model posits a 1.3% annualized expansion for the first three months of this year.
Second quarter GDP is reported on July 28, one day after the July FOMC meeting. Conceivably, the Fed could get in three rate increases at the May, June and July meeting before the potential weakness of the US economy is exposed by two consecutive quarters of weak or non-existent growth. If the NFP figure is as good or better than anticipated, higher US Treasury rates, anticipatory of Fed policy, will continue to support the dollar. Equities will benefit from the continued positive outlook for US economic growth. result will excite the negative prospect for the US economy undemining Treasury rates and the dollar. Equities would quickly discover that the concern over a slowing or recessionary US economy far outweighs the benefits of temporarily lower interest rates.
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