Who can improve their chances of making the playoffs? And who is likely out? Picks, predictions and stats for every Week 15 game.
The Chargers seek their first sweep over the Chiefs since 2013, the Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win Sunday, and two of the best defenses in the league -- Green Bay and Denver -- will battle it out.
We could also see 44-year-oldWe have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and anugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody sharesfor every game. To top it off, we've included ramifications for each game -- from playoff berths to positioning in the Let's get into the full Week 15 slate, which culminates with the "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers onLos Angeles is looking to sweep the Chiefs for the first time since the 2013 season. A win would move the Chargers to double-digit victories for the second straight season under coach Jim Harbaugh and closer to catching the Broncos, who have a two-game lead in the AFC West. "It's the biggest game of the season," Harbaugh said. He continued: "Everybody's fighting for their playoff lives, fighting for their football lives."With no margin for error, the Chiefs enter Sunday's game hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive -- at least for another week. "We're in unprecedented territory," said QB, who has never missed the playoffs in his nine-year career. "I think you lean on the guys that have battled through adversity and came out better on the other side. That's ], all of these guys that have won championships. It hasn't always been pretty, but it'll really test us to see what type of character we have. I think we got the guys in the room to do it."The Chiefs are 1-6 in one-possession games this season, the second-worst win percentage in the NFL. They set a league record by going 11-0 in one-possession games last season.will be held to five or fewer targets for the second straight week. The Chiefs allow targets to players aligned in the slot just 23% of the time , and McConkey plays 62% of his snaps from the slot.The Chargers' playoff chances would increase to 92.9% with a win and move to 70.5% with a loss, according to ESPN Analytics. A win would only increase the Chiefs' playoff chances from 11.4% to 17.2%. Mahomes finished with a season-low 6.3 fantasy points in Week 14. The Chiefs' receivers also had six drops. Mahomes should put on a herculean performance against the Chargers, with WRand Kelce as the primary beneficiaries. Mahomes has averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game against L.A. in his career as a starter., with multiple Bills defenders noting his command of the offense and the support he has received from his playmakers. The high-stakes nature of the game was felt around the building. QBspoke highly of Maye. "He's playing like a veteran quarterback. He's seeing things extremely well. He plays at a great pace. It looks like things have slowed down for him. Which again, we hate to see that, right?" Allen said jokingly. "But I'm happy for how well he's playing because he's a great human being on top of being a football player."Coach Mike Vrabel and Patriots players are embracing the magnitude of the game and the chance to clinch the AFC East title. "This is a great stage that we put ourselves on, and that's exciting," Vrabel said. WR, who spent four seasons in Buffalo, added: "This game is a little different because you're playing for something. Every team in the league can't say that." And Maye said the chance to do it against the Bills adds to the dynamic. "They've won the division for five years . So, we have something we need to go take, and know it's going to be hard to do, but we're up for it," Maye said.Maye is one of eight QBs since 1950 to win at least 10 straight games in the first two seasons of his career.will allow fewer than 20 yards in coverage. It's not quite the zero yards allowed that he had in his monster Week 14 game, but if he stays hot, that will go a long way toward a Bills victory.The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win. New England has won 21 division titles since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, which is the fourth most in the NFL. The Bills' defensive front has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs, which bodes well for Patriots RB, Henderson still belongs in lineups because of his explosiveness. He has averaged 12.4 touches and 11.4 fantasy points per game this season, which provides a reasonable floor.The Patriots have covered five straight division games . The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three division games.is looking to break out of a four-game rut, during which he has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions. But he is 4-0 in his career at Cincinnati, throwing 15 touchdowns and one interception. "I always have so much respect for and the way he plays, the way he fights and competes and everything else out there," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "When the game starts, and the lights come on, there's nobody you'd rather have."Forget everything else about the playoffs, standings, draft slot, etc. The final four games are about one thing: Is QBabout making sure football is fun, that needs to be the top priority for the Bengals. Burrow explicitly said if he's going to keep playing, he needs to be enjoying the game. Building some positive momentum is critical for the future of Burrow and the franchise.Jackson's five straight games without multiple passing touchdowns is the longest such streak as a starter in his career.If the Ravens lose to the Bengals in Week 15, their playoff chances fall to 14% . Winning the division is Baltimore's only viable way to the playoffs; their playoff chances are the same as their division chances. The Bengals' defense has been a fantasy football bonanza for opposing offenses, which bodes well for the Ravens, especially RB. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs, and Henry is averaging 20.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy points over his past seven games. The Bengals have also surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs, boosting the outlook for Jackson and his No. 1 receiver,Sunday will be a battle of the top-ranked defense and top-ranked QB since Week 6. The Texans' defense is ranked first in overall yards allowed, third in passing yards allowed per game and second in passing yards allowed per play. It'll face QB, who's first in completions, attempts, passing first downs and passing yards since he took over as starter in Week 6. Brissett knows his 5-1 career record against the Texans doesn't mean much because the last Houston defense he faced has turned over, but he kept his goal simple when he watched tape: "Try to find what they're not good at. Sometimes, it's not much, but you try to find that and then you start to build your plan around that."isn't allowing the Cardinals' record to lure Houston into a false sense of security. The Cardinals have dropped five straight, and Houston is on a five-game win streak, so the Texans are the better team on paper. But Stroud said, "I think we've got to be on our A-game if we want to get this win," and that the Cardinals are a "great team." Expect Houston to play desperately Sunday.The Texans are one of two teams that have more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed , along with the Chargers.will finish with at least 12 targets. With the Texans' pass rush expected to bear down on Brissett quickly -- and his receivers likely locked up by CBs. He has been Houston's lead back since Week 10, logging 17 or more touches in four straight games and dominating snaps in Week 14 afterexited because of a rib injury, finishing with a season-high 28 touches. The Cardinals' defensive front ranks 22nd in run stop win rate, and Marks has averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game over that span. That should be viewed as his floor, not his ceiling, in this matchup.showcased his potential to be a starting cornerback. Against Denver, Porter gave up four catches for 39 yards and recorded two pass breakups on seven targets. Porter will have another test against WRsout for the rest of the season because of a knee injury, Porter will handle the bulk of the work. "He's really clean technique-wise; he's a real product of our system," coach Pete Carroll said.. He finished with 122 rushing yards, just the second time this season he has gone over 100 yards. The coaching staff went deeper into the playbook, making for a less predictable approach. The performance left some players optimistic that there are better things for Barkley and the offense ahead.Both offensive lines rank in the bottom half of the league in pass block win rate, which measures how often teams sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds .The Eagles will target Porter three or more times on Philadelphia's first drive. With Kelly out, Porter will likely start in his stead opposite the offense's left side, and I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia tries to go after the third-rounder early. To Porter's credit, his numbers this season are solid: a 13% target rate and 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, both better than average. The Eagles have one of the league's top receiver duos in Brown and Smith, and they have a chance to shine against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and fourth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Brown has averaged 11.5 targets and 22.0 fantasy points over his past four games. The Raiders defend TEs well, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points, which means Smith, who has averaged 8.5 points over his past four games, could bounce back.Despite offensive troubles largely due to injuries, Washington remains one of the NFL's better rushing teams -- ranking fourth in yards per game and seventh in yards per carry. Two weeks ago, the Commandersby rushing for 143 yards against the NFL's second-best run defense. Now, they'll face the league's 31st-rated rush defense. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said they have leaned more into the run game this season because they're not as "wide open" with what they can do compared with 2024. "It's been the best thing that we've done, so we got to definitely lean on that," he said. RB. could benefit if healthy -- he has averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in three of his past five games.The Giants return from their bye week to face the Commanders as favorites, and they're looking to finish the season strong. Rookie QBis trying to accomplish one thing down the stretch, beginning Sunday against Washington. "Win," he said. "Win four games. Take it one at a time." The Giants' offense with Dart hasn't been the problem. New York ranks 14th in total offense since he took over. There should be an opportunity for success against Washington's 30th-ranked defense.' 13.0 sacks are the second most in the NFL this season and the most by a Giants player in a season sinceThe Giants will score 30 or more points. As badly as this season has been record-wise, the Giants have a .05 EPA per play with Dart on the field. That would put them 13th, one spot behind the Seahawks. And that's good enough to put up a huge number against the Commanders' defense.Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. However, the Giants have a 52.5% chance of landing a top-five pick in the NFL draft, while the Commanders have a 48.3% chance. Dart's dual-threat ability makes him an option at QB this week. He has averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game in his eight starts. The Commanders are an excellent matchup for Dart and WR. Washington's defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to QBs and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs., who will start the final four games, is a Bears defense that leads the NFL with 18 interceptions. That makes ball security even more important for Sanders, who has thrown three interceptions since making his debut in Week 11. "I think they have some players with outstanding ball skills and anticipatory skills to go to footballs," coach Kevin Stefanski said. "They're playing in their zone defense, very visual on the quarterback. So, with any quarterback -- young quarterback, old quarterback -- you have to do a great job with your eyes. You have to trust what you see when you're looking at them. ... You have to key their defenders and understand where they are, especially in their zones."Sunday's weather forecast calls for a high of 10 degrees, with wind chills around minus-10. If that holds, it will be one of the coldest games on record at Soldier Field. Safetysaid the difficult part of playing in the elements is the idle time. "The whole lead-up -- warmups, when you're kind of just standing around, that's the annoying part of it," Byard said. "The TV timeouts, I stand over by the heaters, and when there's 30 seconds left in the TV timeout, I run back on the field and get the playcall." QBsays he's not fazed by the sub-zero temps. "I believe that weather and the elements don't bother me," Williams said.The Bears are averaging 152.6 rushing yards per game . Chicago has averaged 150 rushing YPG through the first 14 games only once over the past 35 seasons .Sanders will turn the ball over at least three times. The Bears' defense is forcing turnovers on 19% of opponents' drives, which is the best in the NFL by a mile, and Sanders has the worst QBR among all QBs with at least 100 pass attempts.has shown strong chemistry with Sanders, posting 7 receptions, 141 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 12 targets over the rookie's first three starts. Jeudy also draws an excellent matchup against a Bears defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to WRs.The Bears have not closed as at least 7-point favorites since Week 16 of the 2020 season . It's their largest home favorite role since 2018.). Ball security will be paramount. In three-plus quarters last week, Cook had two red zone interceptions and two fumbles . This is a dangerous opponent, as the Jaguars have 23 takeaways . The Jets are prepared for heavy blitzing. As offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand said, "I think, historically, some defensive coordinators say, 'Hey, we're going to heat the young kid up and see what he's made of.'"has had his best stretch of the season in the past three weeks. It's the first time in his career he has thrown for 225 yards and two or more touchdowns in three consecutive games. Since the Jaguars' Week 9 bye, Lawrence ranks 10th in Total QBR and has thrown a league-high five go-ahead touchdown passes, per ESPN Research. "It's not anything necessarily that's changed about anything that we've done with him, I think he's just starting to feel more and more comfortable within the system and within the guys that he's playing with," coach Liam Coen said.The Jets' two takeaways this season ranks as the fewest through the first 13 games of a season in NFL history.The Jaguars will score a defensive or special teams touchdown. No matter who the Jets start at QB, they'll be heavy underdogs, and it will be tough sledding against a Jaguars defense that ranks fifth in EPA per play. My D/ST touchdown model gives Jacksonville a 19% chance to record a touchdown this week, the highest of any team.The Jaguars hold a 97% chance to make the playoffs; that jumps to 99% with a win and falls to 92% with a loss, independent of other results.. and the Jaguars' running game should shine against a Jets defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game. Jacksonville's offensive line ranks sixth in run block win rate. Etienne continues to see a massive workload. He has had at least 18 touches in five of his past six games. Etienne has averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game over that time.in 2021, says the move "feels like a long time ago." Goff says he no longer feels emotions "so much anymore" as he becomes further removed from the trade. "I've got so much respect for those guys over there and how well they're playing, how well they're coached. Certainly, the film I'm watching of their defense is really impressive," Goff said after Wednesday's practice.said that's not something that has come up in team meetings this week. "It's cool to know certain things like that, but the way we approach it ... I think the best way is to be where your feet are and conquer the day that you're in," Adams said. The Rams also have a 46% chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics. With a win against the Lions, that jumps to 60%, and with a loss, it falls to 27%.The Rams' and Lions' play-action rates are among the highest in the NFL this season. The Rams are leading the way, doing so 35% of the time, while the Lions have the fourth-highest clip in the league will have no more than one pass rush win. Though Young is having something of a breakout campaign with 11.0 sacks already, he has just a 10.8% pass rush win rate at edge -- below average for an edge rusher. And, critically, he'll be facing Lions star tackleThe Lions have the second most to gain or lose this week: Their current playoff chances are 54.9%, which rise to 72.7% with a win and fall to 41.6% with a loss.should be leaned on heavily against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The Rams' offensive line ranks seventh in pass block win rate, so it should provide Stafford with the time he needs to throw to his playmakers, especially against a defensive front that ranks 28th in pass rush win rate.has grabbed the majority of the headlines, but the underlying story is the Colts' defense versus the Seahawks' sizzling offense. Indianapolis has been struggling on defense, and without its elite starting CB duo of), the Colts are up against it. In the past five games, the Colts are 25th in scoring defense and 23rd in opposing QBR . Can they slow a red-hot Seattle offense?Coach Mike Macdonald said of Rivers unretiring at age 44: "If anybody can pull it off, it's him. The guy's probably one of the best competitors in the history of the NFL. I'm sure he wouldn't do it if he didn't feel like he was ready." Rivers, who hasn't played since 2020, will have to do it against one of the league's best defenses. The Seahawks are allowing the second-fewest points and rank second in pressure rate, and both offenses might be challenged Sunday, with rain in the forecast.will twice stuff Taylor for gains of zero or negative yards. Williams ranks fourth in run stop win rate as an interior lineman this season.The Colts have a 27% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. They are not favored in any of their final four games this season. The Seahawks' defense has had five games with multiple interceptions, Seattle's most since posting 10 such games in 2013. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest points per game and ranks third in run stop win rate and fifth in pass rush win rate. The Seahawks' defense belongs in fantasy lineups every week, especially against a Colts team without QBThis is the middle game of a three-game stretch -- Bears-Broncos-Bears -- that could decide where the Packers finish. Last week'sput the Packers back in first place. Depending on what happens against Denver, next week's game at Chicago might be season-defining. "We knew going into this year ... it was going to be a grind, and you've got to find a way to get through it," coach Matt LaFleur said.This one goes out to all of the pass-rush lovers. This game will feature the player who leads the league in pressure rate -- Packers edge rusher. So, it could come down to which offense can keep its QB out of harm's way long enough to score against defenses that are among the league's top six in points allowed .last week -- his first game since Week 2 -- and had four receptions and two carries. His workload will likely tick up in his second game back, and with All-Pro CBhas thrived as a vertical threat since returning from injury in Week 8 and belongs in lineups even in a tough road matchup in Denver. He has scored at least 18 fantasy points in three of his past four games and is averaging 6.5 targets per game over that stretch. Watson looks like the Packers' No. 1 receiver. The role says it, the film confirms it and the fantasy points keep coming.The Broncos are 3-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season, with three straight wins. They are 1-0 as home underdogs .Tennessee is looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Nov. 2022. The offense rode with the running gameposting a career-high 161 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers are allowing 103.8 rushing yards per game. Pollard said the key will be "staying locked in on the run game by staying ahead of the chains and playing their game instead of chasing plays."Back from their long-awaited bye, the 49ers are aware of the opportunity Sunday. The playoffs are within reach, but they also have a realistic shot to be in the mix for the NFC's No. 1 seed. "Obviously, we're going to need some help to get there, but if we take care of our business, it just gives us an opportunity," RTsaid. "We've been there before and enjoyed that. So, we take care of our business, we know that's a possibility." Coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't like talking about such things, which is why he is spending this week focusing on this week's task. A win over the Titans would be the first of many steps for the Niners to reach that lofty playoff perch.has a 62% completion rate since Week 11, which ranks 13th among 34 qualified QBs during that span. He previously ranked last among qualified QBs in completion rate from Weeks 1-10 .. Key is coming off a 22% pass rush win rate game at edge and has been solid in pass rush all season.With a win, the 49ers would have a 96% chance to make the playoffs, but that would fall to 83% with a loss. The 49ers' defense is well-positioned for success against Ward, who has been sacked a league-high 49 times. Even though the 49ers rank 30th in pass rush win rate, it's hard to see them struggling in this matchup. Defenses facing the Titans have averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game. Tennessee's offense has scored just 15.5 points per game.called this "just game.'' That's understandable because he's trying not to make it bigger than it is. But Carolina needs to keep pace with the Bucs in the NFC South and can't take a loss like it did to the then-one-win Saints. And it's the most meaningful game in December in Young's career. He had a 14.5 Total QBR in that initial loss to the Saints.has the opportunity to win his first home game after winning two on the road against the Buccaneers and Panthers. He had two rushing touchdowns last week in a game where the Saints had to rely on him and rookie RB. "You want to play your best ball against your divisional opponents ... because of the familiarity. You want to be dialed on your game plan, what they're doing well," Shough said. "So, I think for us, it's another really good challenge just because they've played really good football as of late ... so we've got to be prepared."Shough is seeking his third win this season, which would tie Archie Manning for the most wins by a Saints rookie QB.Young will record a QBR under 45. Last time we saw Young, he had an excellent game in an upset win over the Rams. But it was only because of his exceptional play on third and fourth downs . Young had only a 26.4 QBR on first and second downs. I'm always skeptical when I see a split like that: The late-down performance carries a much heavier weight in explaining the QB's contribution inThough they were tied with the Bucs for the NFC South lead entering Week 15, the Panthers are two games behind the Bears for the final NFC wild-card spot. According to ESPN Analytics, the Panthers would have a 40% chance to make the playoffs with a win, but that would fall to 19% with a loss.) out. Neal led the backfield in snaps, routes, touches and fantasy points in Week 13. He remains firmly on the flex radar while Kamara is sidelined, especially with Carolina allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game over the past three games.The Panthers have lost 11 straight games outright as a favorite, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era . It's their second game as a favorite this season.can't break out of his statistical slump Sunday, when will he? The Cowboys enter the game having allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL . Though they have shown some overall defensive improvement in recent weeks, Dallas has still allowed a 90-plus yards receiving game to eight different receivers this season. Jefferson's past two games -- four receiving yards in Week 13 and 11 yards in Week 14 -- are the two least productive games of his career.The Cowboys know they need help to make the playoffs. They also know they need to do their part by winning their final four games. They have beaten Minnesota three straight times, their second-longest active winning streak against an opponent . And playing at home helps. The Cowboys are averaging 32.6 points and 431 yards per game at AT&T Stadium this season. Minnesota's road offense has not been so hot. Since a third-quarter touchdown at Detroit on Nov. 2, the Vikings have gone 25 possessions without a touchdown.is seeking to be the second Dallas quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards through Week 15, joining Roger Staubach in 1978.will record a QBR under 35. I will need to see McCarthy beat someone better than the worst pass defense in the league -- Washington -- for me to buy in. Jefferson has been difficult to trust in lineups lately. Over his past three games, he has just 16 total targets and 14.3 total fantasy points. This is surprising, considering he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game last season. However, the Cowboys' defense presents a great matchup for Jefferson and McCarthy. Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs and the second most to WRs.) was a limited participant in the team's first practice of the week, and Miami will continue to monitor his reps and preserve his body leading up to Monday night's game. But if Achane can't handle a full workload come game day, coach Mike McDaniel expressed full confidence in backup-- even saying he has had players suggest to him over the past few weeks that Wright should get more game reps. With a career-high 110 rushing yards on 24 carries in place of an injured Achane last week, Wright rewarded his teammates' faith.that he injured in the preseason. The Steelers' run defense improves by an average of about 100 yards per game -- 96 rushing yards allowed versus 191.3 -- when Harmon plays. "He's a first-rounder," coach Mike Tomlin said of Harmon and the difference he makes in run defense. "That's why you draft first-rounders."will record at least four receptions. We know offensive coordinator Arthur Smith loves to utilize his TEs, and 25% of targets against the Dolphins go to TEs, the second-highest rate in the league.drew 12 targets and scored 21.8 fantasy points in Week 14, his second-best outing of the season. Facing Miami looks tough on paper, but the Dolphins have still allowed a receiver 20 or more fantasy points in two of their past three games.
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