ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller shares his first and second-round projections for the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. He highlights top prospects like Jalen Carter and Drake Maye, and analyzes potential landing spots for key players based on team needs and player performance.
Matt Miller is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation's top pro prospects. A Missouri native, Matt joined ESPN in 2022 and also contributes to Sports Center, NFL Live and ESPN Radio.
You can follow Matt on Twitter via @nfldraftscout.in March will alter the needs of each team. Pro days and countless interviews come after that as we count down to Round 1 on April 24. But this is where things stand at the moment. The top 30 picks of theLet's get to it. Here are my first- and second-round projections for April's draft, including landing spots for the Senior Bowl's top risers, Shrine Bowl standouts and fourwith the No. 1 pick. Carter is the closest thing to that. After showing situational pass-rush ability in his first two seasons, Penn State made him a full-time edge rusher in 2024. Carter turned in a dominant performance with 12 sacks, 61 hurries and an FBS-best edge pressure percentage of 19.6%.... well, it should. Like Parsons, Carter is a player you can build a defense around. And while Tennessee has needs at quarterback and right tackle, this might be a case where it's better to draft the best player on the board versus reaching for need.'s future, so it's logical to think they would be all-in on a passer here. But Cleveland isn't a lock to draft a QB given the money it, catching 96 passes for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns while still finding time to pick off four passes at cornerback. He played an FBS-high 1,458 snaps. The debate over. While Nabers was fantastic, he needs a reliable point guard under center. Ward has a big-time arm, excels at finding passing windows and can create with his feet. He led the FBS with 39 touchdown passes in 2024 and was second in QBR . The Giants -- who were 28th in QBR this season at 44.9 -- need a quarterback who can move in the pocket and has the arm talent to maximize Nabers' special skills. Ward is that quarterback and can help turn things around for this offense., but the Patriots can do a lot of that work in free agency with nearly $92 million in cap space, according to Roster Management System. LSU tackleis an option if New England isn't satisfied with its free agent haul. But I wonder if Vrabel might use this pick to find a defensive cornerstone like he had in Tennessee with Graham is a fiery, active interior pass rusher with great technique and the burst needed to be a difference-maker at the 3-technique. Graham, third-year defensive endLiam Coen has an offensive background and might want to beef up the O-line or add another pass catcher, Jacksonville has to find some defensive playmakers. It forced an NFL-worst nine turnovers in 2024, making Johnson -- who had two pick-sixes this past season -- the right selection here. He could line up opposite Scouts are all over the board with Johnson, though. Some think he's a lock as a top-five pick. Other are worried about his missed tackles, his questionable speed andthat limited him to six games this past season. He needs to run well at the combine, but I think he will -- and then solidify his top-10 pick stock.Sanders stays poised within the pocket and displays excellent toughness, with a knack for timing-based throws. He doesn't have blazing speed or superior arm strength, but he is extremely accurate, as his 6.5% off-target percentage in 2024 was second among quarterbacks in this class.There are questions about Campbell's shorter arms -- I've been told scouts measured them under 33 inches this past summer -- but his quick feet and understanding of angles served him well as a three-year starter. New York could try Campbell at tackle first, where he has the tools to be an impact starter, and then shift him to guard if necessary. Regardless, he gives the Jets another young, talented offensive lineman to build around. The Panthers need impact players everywhere. Walker split time between off-ball linebacker and edge rusher at Georgia in 2024, finishing with 6.5 sacks, 29 pressures and 7 tackles for loss. There is some debate on how Walker would be best used in the NFL, but he was a menace in the SEC with his versatility and speed off the edge. Regardless, Carolina allowed 6.0 yards per play this season, last in the league. Wide receiver is another position the Panthers could address, depending on what they do in free agency, but Walker is an easy choice here., but the Saints lack impact receivers beyond him. That's why the 6-foot-5 McMillan could fit. He can win deep down the field and gain even more yards after the catch. His range and ability to win 50-50 balls reminds me of the Falcons'There is concern about McMillan's pull-away speed at the pro level, so how he runs at the combine will be important for his draft stock. But he's one of the best receivers in this class going off tape alone, finishing third in the country with 1,319 receiving yards in 2024.with the No. 10 pick. They could use that pick slot this year on Banks to help the left side of the line. He started every game of his Texas career and gave up only one sack in three seasons.at left tackle. But Jones will be a free agent after 2025, giving the Bears the option to kick Banks out to OT if they believe he's ready. This pick would fill a short-term need at guard and a long-term one at tackle if Jones departs. Chicago allowed a league-high 68 sacks this season, so getting better there will be important this offseason.were the headline for the 49ers' offensive woes this season, yet their offensive line was a mess and will be a priority fix for general manager John Lynch. The 49ers made a great selection on guardin the third round of the 2024 draft, but a plug-and-play right tackle who could eventually take over for All-Pro left tackleis the popular pick here in early mock drafts, and he could be the splash that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones loves to make. But passing on a receiver at No. 12 would be risky given the deep class of running backs. Golden is a surging prospect. He started the season as Texas' No. 2 receiver but became its go-to target late in the season and in the, finishing with 58 receptions for 987 yards and nine touchdowns. His yards-after-catch ability and speed would provide a perfect complement toStephen A. Smith agrees with Cam Newton's theory that the Dallas Cowboys will tank the 2025 season so they can draft Arch Manning the following year and attempt to bring in a new head coach.Membou played right tackle at Mizzou and is an excellent mover in the run game at 6-foot-4 and 332 pounds, making him perfect for the Dolphins' run scheme. Some scouts believe he is the best pure tackle in the class, so kicking him outside in the future could be an option if current right tackle-- and there's always Round 2 to boost the defensive back group. Warren produced touchdowns as a receiver, runner and passer at Penn State and could be a reliable outlet for Richardson. Warren was a prolific pass catcher , but he also has the size to be a standout blocker in the run game. The Colts must determine whether Richardson is their long-term quarterback, and providing him with Warren -- who has the potential to be a top-five NFL tight end -- would support that process. The Falcons had only 31 sacks in 2024, the second fewest in the NFL. That has to change in Raheem Morris' second season as the coach. Williams is right in the team's backyard at Georgia and flashes the power, speed and production that generally excites front offices.this past season showcased Williams at his best, as he registered four combined sacks in those matchups. But he had only one sack in the remaining nine games he played in. Williams is an upside player who could be a double-digit sack-getter with some development. The Cardinals could go a number of directions with wide receiver, cornerback and defensive end all being issues. Barron took home the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation's best defensive back after making a move from slot cornerback to the outside before the 2024 season. He had five interceptions and 10 pass breakups, and he boosted his profile from a Day 3 pick to one of my top 15 players in the class. Some teams might view him as an inside corner, while others like Barron's tape on the outside. Playing him on the inside withon the Bengals' defense was a huge reason Cincinnati missed the playoffs for a second straight season. Along with a new defensive coordinator, we should expect several key defensive additions in the offseason. Stewart is a tough evaluation. He checks every box, from his 6-foot-5, 281-pound size to his speed and power. But he had only 1.5 sacks in the each of the past three seasons. That's something teams must dig in on in the coming months. If the Bengals can unlock that next-level talent, he'd give them inside-outside pass-rush ability. Seattle fans would rather the team address the trenches in Round 1, but general manger John Schneider has shown in the past that he values the linebacker position more than others and an all-out effort on every snap. He caught 81 passes for 1,011 yards and 10 touchdowns this past season.doesn't return after his rookie deal expires before the 2026 season. And regardless of Pickens' future, the team could use a true No. 2 receiver right now. Pairing Egbuka with Pickens and 2024 rookieRussell Wilson joins"The Pat McAfee Show" and addresses the criticism thrown his way as well as his status with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Finding a landing spot for a running back in Round 1 is always tough because a mock draft is based on positional value and team need. If we were drafting based on player talent and ranking, Jeanty would be a top-10 pick. As it stands, he could be drafted much earlier than this, but a pre-free-agency prediction is difficult. Chargers fans should rejoice if Jeanty -- who rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior -- is the pick, though. He is the ideal replacement for free agentwith his power, contact balance and ability to run away from defenses. Jeanty didn't add a ton in the passing game in 2024 , but he is tailor-made for Jim Harbaugh's downhill power scheme.has exceeded expectations, considering he was a seventh-round choice in 2022, but he's also set to be a free agent after next season. The Packers love to invest first-round picks in the trenches, and they can pluck one of my favorite tackles off the board to be their future on the blind side. Conerly was a high school running back until outgrowing the position. Despite still adding play power to his frame in 2024, he had his best season yet, allowing only one sack and seven pressures in the Big Ten. Getting Conerly at No. 23 would be great value for Green Bay, and the need matches up, too., and Nolen is too great a fit to bypass here. Senior Bowl week was huge for him. Nolen showed scouts his trademark speed and gap-splitting ability but also mixed in a dose of power that wasn't always on his game tape. The Vikings could be big spenders in free agency to lock up a 3-technique, but Nolen is a plug-and-play fit in Brian Flores' defense if that money is diverted elsewhere. Booker earned A+ grades for work ethic and drive from the coaches and scouts I spoke to at the Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl. He's also a really good football player. The 6-foot-4, 325-pound lineman is a mauler in the run game, with great initial power in his hands and the lower-body drive to move defenders out of gaps.'s sophomore slump. They allowed 54 sacks, tied for third in the NFL. Investing early draft picks in long-term solutions up front has to be on the front office's wish list. Booker is a dream fit., but teams rarely let starting left tackles hit the market. If Jackson is retained, the Rams' focus shifts to a secondary that had only nine interceptions all season -- tied for fifth-fewest in the league. Thomas is a press cornerback with easy movement ability and the reach at 6-foot-2 to line up across from WR1 types. He had one interception this season, but he also allowed only 12 receptions and 94 yards in coverage. Plus, Thomas was the best cornerback during practices at the Senior Bowl, showing off his press coverage ability and answering any questions scouts had about his ability to run with receivers down the field.before he hits free agency, but the top five options on my board are gone, and there's no early-Round 2 players worth reaching for here. Instead, Baltimore could get a replacement for free agent guardin the powerful and versatile Savaiinaea. Savaiinaea has experience at left tackle, right guard and right tackle, and the 6-foot-4, 339-pounder has 34 5/8-inch arms. He'd also give the Ravens more youth up front, where rookieboth on expiring contracts. But general manager Brad Holmes should beef up the interior defensive line whether Onwuzurike returns or not. Harmon would be a perfect replacement or even work well in tandem. The Michigan State transfer had six sacks and 35 pressures for the Ducks, with the right build at 6-foot-5 and 310 pounds to play in a 3-technique or shade the center. His power to handle double-teams in the run game -- plus his ability to command attention away fromat wide receiver or on the offensive line would be a smart move, but the Commanders have to plug up the defensive holes that led to ain the NFC Championship Game. Pearce is a speed rusher with legitimate burst off the snap, which led to 17.5 sacks and 92 pressures the past two seasons combined. He needs time to build up his lower body to better hold up in the run game, but he has a similar profile to the Eagles'of the Super Bowl again, but it also has to address a secondary that is too often out of place. Emmanwori is a player scouts rave about once they see him in person. At 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds, he has rare speed and range at deep safety, with the power to charge downhill and erase running backs or mobile quarterbacks. He had four interceptions, including one pick-six, and allowed a QBR of just 28.6 this past season. We came into Senior Bowl week wanting to see whether Green's speed would translate against Power 4 offensive tackles and if he had enough power to create counter moves when his speed was shut down. It was an uneven week. He flashed better power when getting the best of Josh Conerly Jr.but also telegraphed his speed rush way too often. The net gain was noticeable, though, as Green proved that his play at 6-foot-3 and 251 pounds can translate against better competition.Dan Graziano outlines why the defense -- and not Saquon Barkley -- is the main reason the Eagles made the Super Bowl. Three-peat or not -- and I'm predicting one here -- this roster has some holes and question marks moving forward. Wide receiver remains a concern. Tight end and right guard could become priority areas ifGrant is a massive prospect at 342 pounds but has the athletic tools to crash gaps and penetrate the backfield. Plugging Grant between Jones andwould automatically divert attention and give them more room to operate. Grant's impact would also be felt immediately in the run game, where he can keep the Chiefs' linebackers much cleaner from interior blockers. The Browns will likely opt to find a short-term quarterback in free agency and prepare to draft one early in 2026. Amos, meanwhile, had three interceptions for the Rebels in 2024 and can start immediately oppositeAfter finding a quarterback in Round 1, the Giants could grab a defensive signal-caller in the second round with Starks. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound free safety is versatile enough to see reps at slot cornerback, but he fits best working over the top of the defense. Titans fans might wonder why a quarterback hasn't been selected yet, but new general manager Mike Borgonzi won't want to tie his tenure to a QB that he isn't 100 percent on. Instead, the Titans might draft a high-impact linebacker who can immediately step into the lineup. A former walk-on, Schwesinger had 136 tackles, four sacks and two interceptions this past season.opens the door for the Jaguars to pick Jackson, who proved he's capable of playing tackle and guard during Ohio State's national championship run. The Raiders have been looking for Maxx Crosby's running mate for a few years now. In Ezeiruaku, they'd get a speed rusher with good power at 6-foot-2 and 248 pounds, excellent length to play in space and top production . Vrabel could continue to rebuild a defense that finished 29th in EPA per play. I expect the Patriots to address their offensive holes in free agency, paving the way for Sawyer to start immediately at right defensive end and be a reliable three-down player from Day 1 on the other side of the ball.would have access to every non-Jeanty back at this pick if the board goes this way and could land a powerful runner in Hampton. Hampton -- who is also a capable receiver out of the backfield -- finished third in the FBS with 1,660 rushing yards and scored 15 touchdowns. The Saints added a receiver in Round 1, and now they'd get a long-term option who can throw him the ball withat Senior Bowl practices -- but he throws a beautiful deep ball and has plus-level tools that will help him start in the future.Jaxson Dart talks about feeling more comfortable on Day Two of Senior Bowl practices and when asked what happens when he's playing well, his answer was short: touchdowns.in 2023, but the results have been mixed. The 6-foot-3, 327-pound Williams can get after the quarterback and packs a punch in the run defense, too. It will be fascinating to watch Ewers' pre-draft process, and a strong combine could boost him into Round 1. The Jets need an heir apparent toand might need that successor to start immediately. Three seasons as a starter at Texas would have Ewers ready for that task. He threw for 3,472 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this past season. The 49ers could address the offensive line again to try to further fix that problem unit. Zabel has played tackle, guard and center, but I think he fits best inside, where his toughness and awareness could make him a star. He turned heads during The deep running back class allows Dallas a chance to keep waiting at that position. Getting the rising Arroyo here to pair with Golden in Round 1 completely changes the Cowboys' offense, though. Current Cowboys tight endwill be a free agent after next season, and Arroyo is a big red zone target at 6-foot-4 and 251 pounds. The Colts' secondary could use more playmakers across the board. The 5-foot-11, 179-pound Hairston is a quick cornerback who can play inside or outside and grabbed six interceptions combined over his past two college seasons.has been great for the Falcons, but teams can avoid him if there's not a reliable corner on the other side. Morrison had first-round grades before hein September, which limited him to three games in 2024. At 6-foot-3, 193 pounds, Revel has the size and speed to be the matchup cornerback the Cardinals are lacking.hurt the Dolphins, so they get a replacement for him here. Sanders is a 3-technique pass rusher with awesome first-step quickness and a similar build to Wilkins at 6-foot-4, 284 pounds., they'd be able to go heavy on defense in the draft. Tuimoloau had 10.5 sacks in a great senior season and would be a player capable of starting on day one for a defense that finished 26th in defensive EPA. It's tempting to pick a quarterback-in-waiting here, but the value isn't right. Instead, the Seahawks take another Texas defensive tackle to join, Seattle's first-round pick in 2024. Collins is a true nose tackle at 6-foot-5, 320 pounds who can shut down interior rush lanes. Payton might say he prefers a committee approach at running back, but the Broncos need a lead back after getting only 513 yards from their No. 1 rusher this season. Johnson rushed for 1,537 yards for the Hawkeyes in 2024 and shows downhill running ability and vision on stretch plays.is set to hit free agency, and his return to Pittsburgh is far from guaranteed. Judkins would be an ideal replacement. He has the downhill power of Harris but better speed to rip off the chunk plays missing from the Steelers' offense, as evidenced by his 28 runs of 10 or more yards., then they should use this pick on a defensive player. Umanmielen has a ton of speed off the edge, which helped him get 10.5 sacks in 2024, but he really turned heads at the Senior Bowl by showing considerable run-down power at 6-foot-4, 264 pounds. Green Bay loves to pick players with top-level traits from Power 4 schools. And the 6-foot-4, 285-pound Scourton has 15 sacks over the past two seasons and is extremely young; he doesn't turn 21 until August.a better supporting cast. The son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, Mason Taylor had only six collegiate touchdowns but has the potential to be a major player in the red zone. He impressed at the Senior Bowl and can consistently win on option routes or post-up safeties with his 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame. Farmer is a quick-footed defensive tackle prospect who is able to play multiple alignments up front at 6-foot-3 and 314 pounds. Teaming him up with veteran defensive tackleanother wide receiver at this spot, but a Panthers defense that gave up a league-worst 404.5 yards per game needs a lot of help. Riley is a feisty, fast cornerback who was nagging receivers in one-on-ones all week at the Senior Bowl. Fixing the trenches is the theme of this draft in Houston. Walker played through a back injury in 2024 that has to be monitored, but he's nearly 6-foot-8 and 350 pounds with great pass-rush tools. He had 7.5 sacks in 2023 before falling to 1.5 this past season.needs additional options at wide receiver, and Royals is a poised and patient route runner with the lower-body strength and quickness to be a threat after the catch. He caught 21 touchdown passes the past two seasons, including 15 in 2023.prior to this season and his long-term future is in question. Wilson has been battle tested in the SEC and would be ready to step in immediately as a starter if needed.had an amazing rookie season, but the Commanders need to get him more receivers. Harris is a big-bodied pass catcher at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, and he caught 63 passes for 1,030 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. He excels on underneath routes and wins in contested situations. This is the third straight pick on defense for the Bills, who need to reload and improve a unit that allowed 43.8% of opposing third downs to be converted, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. Jackson is a powerful edge rusher at 6-foot-5 and 273 pounds, and he was impressive in Senior Bowl practices.has been a huge part of the Eagles' offense, but he turned 30 on Jan. 3. So it's time to add a running mate with a priority draft pick much like they did in 2018, when they drafted Goedert to spellIt has been a while since the Chiefs have been able to execute the screen game that coach Andy Reid loves, and there's no better back in this draft to reinstate that than Henderson. Henderson had 27 receptions for 284 yards and a touchdown to go with his 1,016 rushing yards this past season. He also excels on outside zone runs.
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