For the first time in recorded history, more American adults identify as Republican during a presidential election year's third quarter, according to Gallup. This shift could significantly influence the upcoming November elections.
More American adults identify as Republican in the third quarter of a presidential year for the first time in recorded history, Gallup revealed Tuesday.is significant because party identification is a strong indicator of party preferences leading into November’s presidential, House, and Senate elections.
Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.
Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they haveGallup based its figures on average polling between July and September across presidential years.control of the House chamber, which is charged with initiating revenue bills, impeaching judges and presidents, and electing a president absent an outright Electoral College victory.
More vulnerable Democrat seats mean the party must spend more resources defending seats rather than attacking seats held by Republican senators up for reelection.
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