From Purdue vs. Miami to Alabama vs. Texas Tech, here are the keys that could decide every game.
The first half of the Sweet 16 is set, with 16 teams playing for one of the final eight tickets to the second weekend of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament as the second round continues Sunday. controls the pace of the matchup and its frontcourt gets the upper hand over Miami's frontcourt.
Over the past five games, has averaged 17.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. That inside-outside threat was the catalyst for a run to the Big Ten tournament title game. Add's sharpshooting, and the Boilermakers can beat anyone -- they're a tough team to stall with their size inside and Smith's ability to dictate the flow of any game. In their last loss this season, Wisconsin made 18 3-pointers. Miami doesn't present a similar threat in this matchup.Jai Lucas has already orchestrated one of the biggest turnarounds in Division I basketball this season. A win over Purdue and a Sweet 16 appearance would be another achievement in a remarkable first season at the helm, but it won't come easily.will have to be the best player on the court to give Miami -- a team that doesn't have wins against any national title contenders -- a chance to win. The Hurricanes will also have to pressure Smith and play disciplined in the paint. Even if they do just that, though, they'll still need Reneau,to match -- or exceed -- whatever Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Loyer bring. This is the kind of game where Miami's best players will have to be better than Purdue's., Iowa State has enough to beat Kentucky. The Cyclones have the individual perimeter defenders to slow down the trio of, who has a case to make as the best shooter in the country and stands at 6-foot-8. The Wildcats will likely have to guard him with 6-4 Oweh or 6-5 Chandler, so Momcilovic should have the edge there. Without Jefferson, TJ Otzelberger could opt to go with a smaller lineup that features Momcilovic at the 4, which might create a tougher individual matchup but would also space out the Kentucky defense and remove some of its shot-blockers from the paint.It starts with taking care of the ball. Iowa State thrives when it can force turnovers and get out in transition for easy baskets. The Cyclones are fourth in the country in defensive turnover percentage and in points off turnovers per game. Kentucky was 12th in the SEC in turnover percentage, although the Wildcats have tightened things up lately, giving it away just 46 times in their last five games. Still, they've had issues against teams applying aggressive ball pressure, including against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, the most turnover-prone defenses in the SEC. They will also need to make shots from the perimeter -- they shoot better than 37% from 3 in wins compared to just 29% in losses. Iowa State can guard the 3, but Kentucky's trio of Oweh, Chandler and Aberdeen have to get going.. Bidunga has also struggled mightily in other big games, five points and four points in two games against Houston, two points against Arizona and eight points against North Carolina, and his win/loss splits are telling. In Kansas' wins, Bidunga averages 15.1 points and shoots better than 70% from the field. In losses, he averages 9.9 points and shoots 50.6% from the field. Defensively, the Jayhawks have to keep St. John's out of transition and force the Red Storm to make perimeter shots. They ranked near the bottom of the Big East in 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points from 3s. Their 10 3s against Northern Iowa was the first time they made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10.The biggest edge St. John's will have against Kansas is on the offensive glass. The Red Storm are one of the most effective offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 17th nationally in second-chance points per game. Kansas, meanwhile, was one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Big 12, allowing opponents to rebound nearly 32% of their misses. Ejiofor andshould get extra possessions for the Red Storm. With the exception of the drubbing at UConn in late February, St. John's defense has been operating at an incredibly high level for several weeks. The Red Storm have allowed their past five opponents to make an average of just 3.4 3-pointers per game.This isn't Tony Bennett's team anymore. The Cavaliers knock down 3s and also score with a rugged game in the paint. They also have a top-25 defense. They'll need all of those tools against Tennessee, which is No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. They can't allow the Vols to dominate with second-chance points, and the Cavaliers are equipped to do that thanks to a top-five defense inside the arc. They'll also have to limit the touches of projected NBA draft lottery pick. Tennessee is 2-3 in its past five games when he shoots nine or fewer shots inside the arc. They also have to pressure. The Cavaliers' 3-point barrage must continue after Virginia made 13 against Wright State. The Cavaliers probably can't win without a big game fromRick Barnes' team ended Miami 's fairy tale Friday. The Volunteers outscored Travis Steele's squad 40-16 in the paint to advance -- and they did it despite projected NBA draft lottery pick Ament going 0-for-3 in the game. The Vols will need Ament to look more like the player who scored 27 points in an SEC tournament win over Auburn to reach the Sweet 16. Ja'Kobi Gillespie continues to make this group soar. If he gets to his spots, Ament plays to his potential and the Vols dominate the offensive glass, they will have the offensive tools to win. But nearly 50% of Virginia's field goal attempts are 3-pointers, and the Cavaliers are a top-10 offensive rebounding team. They can play Tennessee's game, too. The Vols will have to play it better.and getting the ball out of his hands. Stirtz is a high-usage point guard, and Ben McCollum's system revolves around him having a hand in nearly every possession.has really developed as a defender this season and will likely be tasked with guarding Stirtz. The rest of Florida's plan will be about imposing its will. The Gators are bigger and more athletic than Iowa, and they're elite on defense. If they can speed the game up and make Iowa uncomfortable, it's hard to picture the Hawkeyes keeping up. Iowa hasn't played a game with more than 70 possessions this season; Florida averages 70.7 possessions per game, per KenPom.On paper, Iowa is in for a tough night down low against Florida. The Gators have one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country, ranking second nationally in paint points per game and third in second-chance points per game. They also lead the country in offensive rebounds per game. Iowa doesn't block shots and allows opponents to shoot 56.5% inside the arc in Big Ten play, but the Hawkeyes played a frontcourt with comparable size and ability when they faced Michigan earlier this month. And though they lost, they held their own up front, outscoring the Wolverines in the paint and scoring more second-chance points. Can the Hawkeyes repeat the feat against Florida? Iowa will also have to get the game at its preferred pace, one of the slowest in the country, forcing the Gators to play in the halfcourt more than they would like.Arizona doesn't have to tweak anything to its game plan to reach its third consecutive Sweet 16. Big 12 Player of the Yearscored just seven points against LIU on Friday, and the Wildcats still put up 92 points. If they continue to rely on that depth, they'll be difficult to stop; five Arizona players scored at least eight points in the win over Long Island. Plus, the Wildcats, who have been criticized after making just 33% of their 3-point attempts in Big 12 play, have made 39% of their shots from beyond the arc over their current 10-game winning streak. They're different now. To stop Utah State's offense, Arizona will have to defend well against numerous ball screens that putmore than anyone else on those ball screens, and attempt to use their speed to set up big plays for their top guards. Utah State will need a magical effort to beat Arizona.Utah State will need another clutch effort from Collins and Falslev -- one of the best guard duos in America who combined for 42 points against Villanova -- to advance past Arizona, a team with just two losses. In the second half of Friday's game, the pair got hot thanks in part because of off-ball screens and backdoor cuts to the basket. They have to find their spots to have a chance against Arizona, too. On defense, the Aggies could follow two blueprints against Arizona: Kansas refused to relent to Arizona's bruising frontcourt, and Texas Tech needed a combination of 31 points fromand perimeter pressure that held the Wildcats to a 4-for-16 clip from 3. But the Wildcats are diverse, so Utah State will need 6-foot-10to protect the paint. The Aggies will also need their guards to limit an Arizona team that has been hot from beyond the arc in recent weeks.is a first-round NBA prospect. The Huskies have dealt with efficiency issues and turnovers in recent weeks, but if they can play with more rhythm, they can beat any team in the country. Ifreturns, however, their bigs -- including Reed -- will be challenged to defend in space. Still, a Huskies team with wins over Florida, BYU and St. John's has overcome more star power than UCLA has on its roster. UConn can keep things simple and win.It would help if Bilodeau returned. The 6-foot-9 star is UCLA's best 3-point shooter -- he spaces the floor for the Bruins in a unique manner that balances their offense. Against UConn, his presence would be a difference-maker because of his size and talent. Without him, the Bruins have to work harder to find open looks against a UConn squad with a top-15 defense. And, who was 4-for-17 from the field against UCF, can't be a spectator in this game. He was one of the most coveted transfers in the portal during the offseason. He has to play to his ceiling to help UCLA beat a team that has won two of the past three national titles.will have the responsibility of containing Reed, who just finished with 31 points and 27 rebounds in a win over Furman. If the 6-foot-11 Booker can't slow down Reed, UCLA won't have a chance. The Bruins should also look to exploit UConn's ballhandling woes -- the Huskies have committed 79 turnovers in their past six games -- especially if Demary is out again.Similar to Tech's keys, Alabama has to win the perimeter battle. The Crimson Tide shoot the ball at an incredible volume from beyond the arc, but are not quite as accurate as the Red Raiders -- and the Tide have lost four of the six games in which they have made fewer than 10 3s. Moreover, Alabama's 3-point defense is far worse than Texas Tech's 3-point defense. Without, Alabama has fewer players who can get their own shot off the dribble, making the Crimson Tide more reliant on. to have another big game. As one of the elite playmakers and shotmakers in the sport, Philon is likely up for the task. But he'll be facing a fellow All-American and first-round pick inTexas Tech is one of the few teams in America that can keep up with Alabama from the perimeter. Though the Crimson Tide lead the country in 3-point attempt rate and made 3-pointers per game, the Red Raiders aren't far behind -- they're third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and fifth in made 3-pointers per game. They've leaned into it even more sincesuffered a season-ending right knee injury, with a 3-point attempt rate above 51% in four of its past five games. At the other end, can Tech keep Philon from getting into the lane at will? He is a bit bigger than Anderson, but
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