How are your team's chances to make the Big Dance shaping up in the final six weeks until Selection Sunday?
The 2026 men's NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means it's time to turn our attention to the biggest burning question: Will your team be in or out? It has roughly six weeks until Selection Sunday to answer that query.
Until then, we're here to track how each team on the"bubble" of the bracket is trending. We'll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections -- conditional onwinning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids . To that end, we'll use Joe Lunardi'sand NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate -- to judge a team's underlying potential. . These are the truest"on the bubble" teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip.Teams that would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little -- though not zero -- chance these ones will make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament. Let's go conference by conference -- in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids -- to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid. Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ. Iowa's résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the high 40s in KPI to the low 20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That's still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January and with Sunday's 18-point victory at Oregon. They're even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in at 22nd in our average of performance ratings, which raises their potential going forward. But their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 70th to 17th nationally from here on out, according to the BPI. The Badgers boosted their case with a 10-point home win over fellow bubble-dweller Ohio State on Saturday; it was their seventh victory in eight games. They still sit around 40th in the national consensus résumé ranking, which is prime bubble territory. But they also sit eighth among the 10 Big Ten teams tracking for bids. The schedule does not let up anytime soon, either, with four straight Quadrant 1A contests coming up next that could provide signature wins or knock their odds into shakier territory. Indiana is here as the darling of the forecast models, which average out to a 91% conditional at-large probability despite a relatively similar top-line résumé ranking to other Big Ten bubble candidates below. What the Hoosiers have going for them are more signature wins -- two versus Quadrant 1A -- and plenty of talent, as they are in the top 30 in every power rating we're tracking. The latter factor leads them to be projected for more wins by season's end than any of the conference's other non-locks aside from Iowa. The Bruins are coming off a heartbreaking loss in a double-overtime classic to Indiana on Saturday that snapped their 14-game home win streak. But in the big picture, their résumé still ranks mid-40s nationally and 10th in the Big Ten, and that might even be underselling their chances. The forecast model composite thinks they're more likely to get a bid than not , on the basis of two Quadrant 1 wins and a more manageable rest-of-season schedule than their bubble rivals, which ought to get them to 20 wins. That said, many high-leverage games remain. The Buckeyes are right on the bubble at No. 45 in the national résumé rankings, but a 10-point loss at Wisconsin did them no favors; they now rank 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They have a single Quadrant 1 win and are projected by the BPI to fall just short of 19 wins on the season -- meaning they're projected to be sub-.500 from here on, which explains why they're not as sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. If the season ended today, USC would likely secure one of the Big Ten's last entries comfortably, as they are a top-40 team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in the conference in that regard. The models are less bullish , however, because the Trojans are only a borderline top-50 team in the predictive ratings and have just a single win against the BPI top 50 . With five losses in their past nine outings, they can't let what was once a 12-1 start unravel more. The Huskies might be downgraded to the Long shots category soon, but we'll slot them here for now on the basis of a 23% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-7 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé . But they also have a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season with a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Saturday. There's a ton of work left to do, but Washington could run up wins against the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule. Auburn has a number of good wins against a tough schedule and would be in solid shape if the season ended today, but its fate is complicated by one of the nation's toughest remaining schedules . Despite losing to Tennessee on Saturday, there's still plenty of cushion to work with -- the model consensus actually gives the Tigers 95% at-large odds -- but the BPI is projecting the Tigers to fall short of 20 wins. Minimizing losses in a brutal stretch over the next three weeks -- with games against Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas -- will be crucial to Auburn maintaining its position. Just as a 25-point loss at Vanderbilt seemed to dampen Kentucky's recent hot streak, Saturday's victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville elevated coach Mark Pope's team back into Should be in status. The Wildcats' résumé is on par with the rest of the SEC's candidates in this category, and they have a 94% at-large chance in the model consensus. But only two teams in the country are projected for a tougher schedule over the rest of the season, which could make for an interesting ride. Most of the models in the forecast consensus consider the Aggies to be in outstanding shape for an at-large bid, particularly after beating Georgia by 15 in Athens on Saturday. They are projected by the BPI to eclipse 22 wins, which ought to be enough to make the tournament when the smoke clears. They're still tied for eighth out of what could be nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC in the résumé ranking average, though there's a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas. The Bulldogs seemed to have risen above the bubble fray for a time, but recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds. At No. 35 in the résumé rankings overall and with a trio of wins against the BPI top 50, they might not need to worry too much. But the Dawgs' schedule-strength leap is among the biggest of any high-major team, and they're projected to lose more remaining games than they win. Despite ranking in the mid-30s nationally in the predictive metrics, Sean Miller's team is staring at a tough numbers game already after a handful of early defeats in SEC play . The Longhorns are 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings , and their schedule strength jumps from 61st hardest looking back to 32nd hardest going forward. Four Quadrant 1 wins are helpful, but they'll have to compile even more while hoping the NCAA accommodates 10 SEC teams for the Dance. The Tigers recently went cold, losing four of six to drop to 11th in the league in the résumé average, though they did beat Mississippi State on Saturday. They are projected to finish with 18.5 wins, though they do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins and four against the BPI top 50. But even if their résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins might be easier said than done. The Wolfpack have won six of the past seven games -- including their sole Quadrant 1A victory in overtime at Clemson -- and are a top-25 team nationally in the predictive ratings, which bodes well for their momentum. They are closer to the bubble than their 34th rank nationally in résumé average indicates, but the models expect them to keep winning. The Mustangs entered Saturday's game at Louisville in fairly similar shape as the Cardinals and the Wolfpack, but the road loss dropped SMU back some. The Mustangs still rank sixth best in the conference on their résumé, which is a great foundation. And while they are seventh in the ACC in the predictive ranking, they have the nation's 72nd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing their status quo above the bubble. The Hurricanes had bounced back from back-to-back defeats against Clemson and FSU with wins over Syracuse and Stanford to stabilize their at-large odds in most of the models. But Saturday's one-point home loss to Cal put another dent in those numbers. The Hurricanes are the 38th-best résumé team nationally, and they face the 70th-hardest remaining schedule. But they are directly on the bubble at No. 8 in the ACC in résumé ranking, so their at-large chances remain around a coin flip. The Hokies' conditional at-large odds are fairly consistent, but that could be a negative, as every system has them pegged between 18% and 33%, meaning they are tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. While their record is similar to that of Miami -- which has a much easier schedule -- the difference is in future projection for a Virginia Tech team that ranks borderline top 60 in the predictive metrics. The BPI also projects the Hokies will go 3-5 over their remaining regular-season schedule. The Golden Bears were not exactly tracking for a strong tournament bid when they lost four of five to open ACC play, but wins over North Carolina and Miami have vaulted them into consideration. At No. 50 on the résumé list with a 31% consensus at-large probability, they would likely be on the outside looking in if it were already Selection Sunday. However, they do have three Quadrant 1 wins to their name. They Bears have the ACC's easiest remaining schedule, which could see them end up with a surprisingly intriguing case by season's end. With so many of the conference's expected bids being effective locks -- the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus -- the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights are in the driver's seat for that slot, especially after grabbing a signature win over visiting Texas Tech on Saturday. They rank 25th in the résumé average, while no other non-lock Big 12 team is even in the top 55. Pulling off a road upset at either Houston or Cincinnati in the next week-plus would go a long way in further solidifying UCF's standing. Despite low tournament chances for much of early conference play, the Cowboys sneak in here on the basis of their No. 53 placement in the résumé ranking, which does rank eighth best in the conference . The models are low on Oklahoma State because its predictive ranking is so much worse than TCU's, and the Cowboys face the Big 12's second-toughest remaining schedule. But Steve Lutz's team could make noise with some upsets. After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs are facing a deficit in both the record and résumé departments relative to UCF and Oklahoma State -- and the rest of the tournament bubble, for that matter. Their case isn't without merits, which include three Quadrant 1 wins , and they face the Big 12's easiest remaining schedule . But in Sunday's visit to Colorado, the Frogs came out flat and let the game spiral into an ugly 87-61 loss, putting a major dent in their at-large chances and risking a drop to Long shots territory.on the border of being a lock, with a 96% at-large chance in the model consensus, but there are enough meaningful differences between them and UConn and St. John's to give at least some pause. While the other two are both within the top 20 in predictive ranking, Villanova is outside the top 30, which eats into its future projection some. The Wildcats are only 2-4 against the BPI top 50, as well. That being said, they play the Big East's third-easiest remaining schedule and should clear 22 wins by regular season's end, a projection that improved with Saturday's 87-73 home win over Providence. It would take a lot for the Wildcats to not hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Shaheen Holloway's team pulled out of its recent four-game losing streak with much-needed wins at home over Xavier and Marquette, but the Pirates need a lot more where that came from. At No. 49 nationally in résumé average and with only a single Quadrant 1 win against NC State back in late November, they would likely be on the outs if the selection were made today. The Pirates should pick up some wins facing the 54th-ranked remaining schedule, but those will need to include signature ones.The Billikens have a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man. They are 21-1 after beating Dayton by 31 points on Friday, tracking for Sports-Reference's best SRS rating in program history. They rank 20th nationally in the résumé rankings and 23rd in the predictive ratings, with an 89% consensus chance that is arguably underselling their résumé. It's very hard to see the Billikens not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary.Per the BPI, the Aggies are big favorites to get in as the Mountain West's AQ with a 43% chance; no other team is above 17%. But if that doesn't happen, Utah State should still be in good shape as the second team called from the conference. They rank 31st in the résumé rankings and have a Quadrant 1 win over Boise State, plus they came back from a double-digit deficit at home to beat bubble rival San Diego State on Saturday. The Aggies also are the third-best mid-major in the predictive ratings, trailing only Gonzaga and Saint Louis. Even during a season in which the Mountain West could secure only three bids, Utah State should be one.Saint Mary's hasn't missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it's tough to imagine that streak coming to an end with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they're here because they carry only a consensus 70% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara's, the Gaels lost the first of the teams' two head-to-head matchups. They also don't have any Quadrant 1 wins -- and likely won't, unless they get revenge for Saturday's loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary's.Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos have the inside track to being the Mountain West's second-most-likely team. They have a better résumé ranking than San Diego State and a slightly better predictive rating , and they face a fairly equivalent schedule from here on out. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which the Lobos won't have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.The MAC hasn't received multiple bids since 1998-99. Fittingly, that was the season Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? Along with Arizona, Miami is one of only two remaining unbeatens in Division I and ranks 40th on résumé as a result. The forecast models don't quite know how to handle the RedHawks. It is true that they are a borderline top-90 team in the predictive ratings that has run up an undefeated record against the 355th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and the BPI gives Miami an 8% chance to win out from here.The Santa Clara and Saint Mary's comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids -- which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons -- and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos' chances are roughly a coin flip at this point -- at No. 48 in the résumé rankings with 61% consensus at-large odds -- but they will get another crack at Saint Mary's and Gonzaga later this month.Even if the bulk of the comparison points between San Diego State and New Mexico favor the Lobos, it is a close comparison nonetheless. The Aztecs are one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 46th nationally in résumé ranking, but their consensus at-large chance fell from 63% to 49% after Saturday's loss at Utah State. That being said, the Mountain West could send at least three teams to the tournament; the conference hasn't missed that threshold in five seasons. With a fairly large gap in résumé quality over the next-best league team , the Aztecs would figure to be in decent enough shape if they keep winning.The Patriots perennially flirt with a tournament entry but haven't been back to the Dance since reaching the round of 32 in 2011. They're 20-2 and rank 47th on the résumé list, which is prime mid-major bubble territory, but their consensus at-large probability is just 14%. If Saint Louis is effectively a lock, other A-10 teams such as George Mason and VCU must make their cases for the league to get a second bid if they don't win the conference tournament.VCU hasn't made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago. The forecast models aren't exactly bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that . However, the Rams are squarely in bubble territory on overall résumé -- they rank 50th nationally -- and their remaining schedule is set up for plenty more wins, so they can certainly add to their case.An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index , KenPom ratings , Bart Torvik's"Barthagorean" ratings, TeamRankings' power ratings and Sports-Reference's SRS ratings.
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