The 2026 NBA draft class is projected to be full of elite prospects and the Mavs could use one next to Cooper Flagg.
The 2026 NBA draft class is projected to be full of elite prospects and the Mavs could use one next to Cooper Flagg.Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg celebrates after a play during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans, Monday, March 16, 2026.
While they aren’t mathematically eliminated from postseason contention yet, their fate is all but sealed. Playoffstatus.com gives them a 99% chance of missing the playoffs.The team with the sixth-worst record has an 8.3% chance to land the top pick and a 34.8% chance to land a top-four pick. Those odds are significantly better than the 1.8% probability the Mavericks had when they secured the No. 1 pick in last season’s draft.That lightning in a bottle disguised in the form of ping-pong balls led to the selection of Cooper Flagg, who has exceeded expectations. The Mavericks have found the next face of their franchise, but they need to add a complementary co-star that fits Flagg’s timeline. The 2026 NBA draft class is projected to be full of elite prospects, with All-Star potential littered throughout the first 10 picks. The four headliners are AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson, but there are several others who would fit in Dallas as the Mavericks pivot to a younger core.It’s why the position of this year’s lottery pick is nearly as important as it was in 2025. The Mavericks also hold another first-round pick from the Anthony Davis trade, which will likely be Oklahoma City’s 30th overall selection. A top-four finish is a tall task since the Mavericks are 7.5 games behind Indiana for the worst record in the NBA and five full games behind Sacramento for the fourth-worst mark in the league. However, fifth could be obtainable since Dallas is 2.5 games behind the floundering Utah Jazz . A fifth-place finish would be more desirable than sixth since that team has a 10.5% chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 42.1% chance to select in the top four.The Pelicans will not benefit from strategically positioning themselves for this year’s draft lottery because their first-round pick belongs to the Atlanta Hawks.Therefore, the Jazz pose the biggest threat of standing in the Mavericks’ way in the race for fifth place.. However, Dallas’ path gets tougher because they have the third-most difficult schedule remaining with 13 games to play. The slate includes top playoff contenders such as San Antonio, Denver and the Los Angeles Lakers. Meanwhile, Utah has lost three straight games and eight of its last 10. Its remaining schedule of 14 games has an average opponent win percentage of 53.3%, the sixth-toughest in the NBA.It’s been difficult for the Mavericks to win this season because of their injury woes and dreadful offense, largely the result of personnel. However, a recent adjustment to playing without a true center has allowed them to generate more 3-pointers. The pivot has also led to a resurgence for Flagg, who’s scored at least 20 points in three straight games. He’s regained his mojo after slowly ramping up in his first five games back from a left midfoot sprain. Flagg’s consistent play should keep the Mavericks competitive for as long as he’s on the floor, but the team could benefit from adding to the loss column between now and the end of the season. The Mavericks can also look forward to reinforcements. Big man Daniel Gafford has missed the last three games, including two with an illness. He and Klay Thompson, who rested during the team’s back-to-back in Cleveland and New Orleans, could return to the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks — who enter the matchup with 10 straight victories, the longest active win streak in the NBA.The draft lottery will be held in Chicago on May 10, the night when the speculation about where the Mavericks land will end.‘True professional’: Even in loss, Naji Marshall continues to be bright spot for Mavericks Dallas fell to New Orleans, but Marshall continued to provide consistency with a 32-point performance for a team that needs all the help it can get.While the Pelicans don’t control their first-round pick, Dallas and New Orleans are closely tied in the lottery odds race.Mike is the Mavericks Beat Writer for The Dallas Morning News. Before his arrival at the DMN, he spent two seasons covering the Detroit Pistons at The Detroit News. Mike earned his bachelor's degree in Communications from Tennessee State University and received his master's degree in Media and Communication from Middle Tennessee State University.Judge issues motion to stay in Robert Morris' Gateway Church legal case
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