Madison millionaire weighs Baldwin challenge as GOP seeks Wisconsin Senate candidate
Dropping over $5 million of his own money in the final months of the 2012 contest, the Madison businessman beat out a former U.S. congressman and the speaker of the state assembly, only to fall 3 points short of Tommy Thompson, the former governor of Wisconsin.A decade later, few Republicans are clamoring to challenge Baldwin, now an incumbent running for her third term in the Senate. She beat Thompson that year by more than 5 points. Her 2018 challenger lost by 11.
Hovde, a real estate developer worth tens and possibly hundreds of millions of dollars, has repeatedly eyed another run for statewide office. He mulled but decided against a Baldwin challenge in 2018 and raised speculation that he could run for governor last year. He opted to hold off, expressing interest in next year’s Senate race instead.
“You know, it's not an easy decision. It's a major commitment of your life, of your resources, and all the rest, but I’m taking a hard, serious look at it,” he said. He handily won a straw poll for the Wisconsin Senate race taken after the speech, according to Brandon Maly, the chairman of the Dane County Republicans.
“I'd say he’s certainly leaning towards entering the race,” said Bill McCoshen, a Republican strategist who met with Hovde late last month. Republicans doubt that Clarke will actually jump in, however, and Mayer seems reluctant — he told NBC News in April he “might” run “if no one else comes up to the plate.” The big-spending Club for Growth, meanwhile, told reporters in a press briefing last month that it is not interviewing any GOP challengers in the state.
The prospect of an uncontested primary is particularly attractive to state Republicans, who endured a bitter gubernatorial primary last cycle, followed by a state Supreme Court race earlier this year that pitted two conservatives against each other. There’s little appetite for a repeat — both ended in costly losses.
Asked about a possible run by Clarke, Hovde told the Washington Examiner the ex-sheriff would be a “serious contender” but that his entry would not change his calculus. “I have the highest respect for him, but that would not dissuade me,” he said. Hovde has to assess for himself whether he can outperform Trump like Sen. Ron Johnson did in 2016, according to McCoshen. Johnson won by 3 percentage points that year, a margin that dropped to a single point in 2022.
Waiting until the fall to decide gives Hovde the luxury of seeing how the presidential race shapes up. By November, the Republican National Committee will have held two primary debates.
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