‘It masked the full perception.’ Falling gas prices may have skewed expectations for August inflation numbers

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‘It masked the full perception.’ Falling gas prices may have skewed expectations for August inflation numbers
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Gas prices fell 10.6% during August. Here’s why it’s not a relief from inflation.

Investors got a rude awakening with Thursday’s hotter-than-expected inflation numbers, and the decline in gas prices since June may have contributed to their sense of shock.

It was a disappointing set of numbers at a time when economists were forecasting a 0.1% decline month-over-month that would have taken the year-over-year rate to 7.9%. Consumers were also expecting more price moderation ahead, including gas costs, according to a Monday consumer expectation survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“Americans saved on gasoline, but paid more for just about everything else in August,” according to Katherine Judge, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets. “Diesel is not as much in the limelight as gasoline,” and it may be one “missing piece” to remember as people try getting their heads around why costs keep climbing, De Haan said.

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