Polls showing Republican unhappiness with Donald Trump or interest in Ron DeSantis may matter less than signs one is much stronger than the other against Joe Biden. ed_kilgore writes
’s alleged potential going into 2016. It’s also worth remembering that national polls assessing support for this or that presidential candidate mean a lot less than performance in the early nominating contests, which for Republicans will begin in Iowa and New Hampshire. We have yet to see how DeSantis performs in a presidential caucus or primary.
But there is one measurable optic that could affect Republican voter preferences from sea to shining sea if they show a glaring disparity: perceived 2024 electability. Just as Democrats who might have preferred a younger or more progressive nominee in 2020as the most electable option against the much-hated Trump, Republicans could dump Trump in 2024 if he’s perceived as a sure loser while alternative candidates aren’t.
There hasn’t been a wealth of 2024 general-election trial heats matching variable candidates just yet; they will begin arriving steadily once the field in both parties becomes more solidified. But so far there are already signs that a perceived electability advantage could be an important asset for DeSantis, aside from the very important data point that Trump has already lost to Biden once.
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