Iran is doing the only thing it can, walking a dangerous tightrope that seeks to turn the U.S. against its allies without giving Trump the excuse he wants for war
The administration has also curtailed Iran’s options for disposing of its excess energy-grade uranium. In May, it revoked authorization for Iran to sell the uranium abroad, as it had done under the nuclear agreement. Though Iran has largely disposed of the uranium by reprocessing it, the revocation underscored perceptions that Iran was being goaded into violating the agreement.
That’s the perfect word: “Goading.” The American foreign policy toward Iran is simple, and amounts to a bad-faith attempt to force them into desperate circumstances, at which point any desperateon their part will serve as a pretext for war. The tactic of forcing Iran to get rid of its uranium while denying them one of the prime avenues is a perfect microcosm for the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” ultimatums they’re thrusting on the country.
[Analysts] say Iran appears to be pursuing a provocative but calibrated strategy to counter what its leaders see as a potentially existential American threat — as severe economic sanctions strangle the economy and cut off vital oil revenues — as well as to preserve the nuclear agreement. In doing so, Iran is falling back on tactics associated with its reputation as a rogue state, including asymmetric military escalation, like threatening oil shipments, though Iran denies American accusations that it attacked tankers last week, or the downing of an American drone on Thursday , and nuclear blackmail. It is doing so, analysts say, because such tactics are part of the basis of Iranian power and because the United States has closed off other avenues for responding.
With the uranium enrichment increase, Iran is attempting to “create a crisis just large enough to pressure European and Asian powers to step in and rein in the United States, but small enough to be easily defused,” to quote Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in remarks she made to theIran was politically obliged to react sooner or later to the US sanctions. Impossible to let the US have the cake and it : JCPOA and sanctions.
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