Analysis: Reagan’s careful, swift response to Iranian tanker attacks in the 1980s offers a model to Trump for avoiding a catastrophic conflict
Steven Simon served as the National Security Council senior director for counterterrorism and for the Middle East and North Africa, respectively, in the Clinton and Obama administrations. His next book,, will be published by Penguin Random House.The burgeoning crisis in the Persian Gulf has drawn comparisons to the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964.
Kuwait, the main outlet for Iraqi oil, was eager to outsource protection of its oil carriers. Its leaders approached the Soviets, confident that this would spook a hesitant Reagan administration into offering American protection. It worked: The United States agreed to reflag Kuwaiti and other vessels as U.S. ships, so that the U.S. Navy could legally offer its protection by escorting the ships through the Persian Gulf and into open ocean, beginning in July 1987.
In retrospect, the curious thing about the incident was the Reagan administration’s restraint. President Ronald Reagan tended to use tough rhetoric about American adversaries, and Iran was no exception, especially after his secret attempt to woo the Iranians through arm sales had collapsed in fall 1986. But even though Iran had put a U.S. warship out of commission, the Reagan’s administration’s response was modest and proportional; there were no strikes against targets on Iranian soil.
The parallels between today’s situation and the 1980s are clear. Yet there is reason to wonder how closely the Trump administration will follow Reagan’s precedent. We now have another president who talks tough and valorizes military power but is reluctant to use force. His advisers, however—unlike Weinberger and George Shultz, Reagan’s secretary of state—are risk takers who court escalation.
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