Our college football expert predictions are all about finding value, and Douglas Farmer has found value in backing the underdog.
On a weekend where every one of nine conference championship games has a spread within a touchdown, no spread is tighter than the Big 12 title game, with the Arizona State Sun Devils mere two-point favorites against the Iowa State Cyclones.
Power rankings all favor the Cyclones. That is not enough reason to make this bet, but it is a solid start. In a close game, the game could be lost by losing just one additional possession because a stacked box knocks Skattebo off schedule on a single additional carry. That is the risk of being run-dependent in a game with these stakes. If urgency is needed, the Sun Devils may be out of luck.
It remained steady all week, reaching only +2 or +2.5 despite the confirmation of Tyson’s injury, a clear sign he was never expected to play once the injury was seen last weekend.
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