Background warming and soil moisture feedback will enhance impact of heat domes, says study NatureComms
. For each day during this event with an anomalous anticyclone located over the WNA, 20 best analog days with the most similar eddy z500 anomaly field over the WNA are selected within a 61-day
30 days) moving window centered on it from other years. The similarity is determined by the Euclidean distance between the observation and the analog circulation maps over the WNA. The similarity can also be measured by the pattern correlation coefficient between the analogs and the event. The two measures of similarity yield qualitatively similar results.
Similar to the ERA5 reanalysis, we also apply the flow analog method to the data of CESM1 historical and preindustrial control simulations to assess human influence. Notably, as the length of the dataset affects the similarity of the selected circulation, the preindustrial control simulation is divided into 54 groups by applying the flow analog method to each group separately.
To investigate the effect of soil moisture on the heat dome, we select the preceding month and simultaneous soil moisture anomalies conditional on the heat dome-like circulation from 27 June to 3 July 2021. Specifically, for each day during this event , we select one of 20 best analogs with the most similar eddy z500 anomaly field over the WNA, obtain the soil moisture anomalies of this date, and then average the soil moisture of 7 days.
To quantify the contribution of soil moisture anomalies to the heatwave, we select the 20 best analog days with the most similar soil moisture anomaly fields over the WNA, that is, replace the circulation proxy with soil moisture anomalies, and then obtain the probability distribution of tmax anomalies conditional on the soil moisture of the 2021 case through randomly picked analogs.
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