Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia could face some direct impacts, with winds in the higher-end tropical storm to low-end hurricane range. Storm surge could affect Nova Scotia.
Hurricane Lee remained a large and powerful Category 3 hurricane in the open Atlantic early Tuesday, but the risk of eventual impacts to land has increased. The National Hurricane Center has now included parts of Cape Cod and Maine in its extended “cone of concern,” and forecasts the storm to eventually hit Nova Scotia this weekend.
By then, Lee will be transitioning into a nontropical storm and weakening — but its wind field will be broadening. There is at least some risk of wind and coastal concerns for parts of the Northeastern United States, and especially southeast Canada. Lee became the Atlantic’s first Category 5 hurricane of the season last Friday morning, with peak winds estimated around 165 mph. It rapidly weakened as quickly as it intensified, only gradually regaining major hurricane status over the weekend.Lee is flanked by Margot, another hurricane a thousand miles to the east set to drift aimlessly over the open ocean. By late in the week, a third system to watch may grow into Nigel, and push west-northwest across the Atlantic. Mid-September is the historic peak of hurricane season, and, technically speaking, if the season ended now, it would still stack up within the range of average. But we’re only at the halfway point — and, in line with preseason forecasts, it’s shaping up to be the eighth extra-active hurricane season in a row.As of 8 a.m. Tuesday morning, Lee had winds of 115 mph. That put it just above the threshold for Category 3 strength, qualifying it as a major hurricane. It was located about 575 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving west-northwest at 7 mph.to strengthen thanks to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, it has factors working against it — including disruptive upper-level winds that seek to knock its circulation off-kilter, and a bit of dry air that’s occasionally worked into the circulation. The greatest impediment to its strengthening, however, has been changes in its internal structure. Generally speaking, a hurricane is anchored around an eyewall, or a doughnut of extreme winds and tall thunderstorms surrounding its eye. In the case of Lee, however, several partial or messy “eyewall replacement cycles” have ensued in the past couple days. That means an outer eyewall has formed around a decaying inner eyewall. Each time, the wind field expands but diminishes a bit.So long as messy eyewall replacement cycles continue, Lee won’t be able to strengthen beyond its current intensity.Lee will maintain Category 3 strength for another day or so, and then begin to slowly weaken. Its large size will allow it to churn up cooler ocean waters from below, hastening its loss of intensity. It will also begin to see effects of stronger high-altitude winds, which will negatively impact its structure. Lee will be steered between a forcefield-like clockwise spinning high pressure “ridge” over the Atlantic, and an approaching low-pressure “trough” spinning counterclockwise over the eastern U.S.; there’s an increasing potential for the trough to “capture” Lee, and tug it west a bit. That bolsters the risk of land impacts.can expect a few hours of tropical storm conditions late Thursday into early Friday as the center of Lee passes roughly 200 miles to the west. Squally weather, with downpours and gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range, are likely.may be fringed with some of the western rain bands of Lee on Saturday, with wind gusts of 40 mph or greater possible on outer Cape Cod. A high rip current risk would also be present. If Lee’s prognosticated track continues to shift west, which it might, then impacts would be greater.may face more direct impacts, with winds in the higher-end tropical storm to low-end hurricane range. A storm surge, especially east of Lee’s center, could affect Nova Scotia. Heavy or even flooding rains may be an issue too, and rip currents and rough surf are a guarantee. By then, Lee will begin morphing into a nontropical system, deriving energy from the jet stream. That means its winds will weaken, but the overall wind field will expand. That increases the danger of a storm surge in Canada. Waters may reach 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels.
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