SAN ANTONIO - Hurricane Beryl continues to bulldoze across the Caribbean as a powerful hurricane but through today, the core of the worst weather has stayed wel
SAN ANTONIO - Hurricane Beryl continues to bulldoze across the Caribbean as a powerful hurricane but through today, the core of the worst weather has stayed well south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico by 150 to 200 miles.
Up next will be Jamaica which at this time is roughly 450 miles or so to the west of Beryl. Hurricane Beryl will either make landfall or a very close pass to the island as a major cat 3 or an outside chance it could possibly be a cat 4 hurricane. Beryl is showing the advertised weakening trend now underway. While still almost a cat 5 hurricane in this most recent advisory, wind shear and some dry air to the west being entrained into the hurricane are starting a gradual weakening process with a more ragged appearance compared to yesterday. As the hurricane interacts with the high terrain of Jamaica, further weakening is likely. Beryl is forecast to reach the Yucatan as a cat 1 hurricane then the pass across land will bring the storm down to a tropical storm as it emerges back over the southwestern Gulf. Spaghetti plot modeling shows the range from Texas to Mexico for a final landfall. Clustering is in northern Mexico to the Texas border and the Hurricane Center's official forecast fits into the middle of this envelope for the most part. But do note the cone overlaps Texas and implies there is some risk of a turn sooner to the northwest that could bring the storm toward deep South Texas. The two major global models couldn't be any farther apart on their solutions with the American GFS model making landfall in South Texas as a hurricane while the European model takes Beryl west into Mexico as a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane. These track differences lead to a massive rainfall range between the two. Following the NHC's forecast track, the bulk of the rain would stay in deep South Texas but we would pick up on some chances. Also, a weak tropical wave behind Beryl could arrive a couple days later next week and also bring a rain chance to Texas.
Jamaica Texas Caribbean Landfall Weakening Tropical Storm Mexico
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