Today's meeting of the National Bank of Hungary should be a non-event in terms of a rate decision.
Today's meeting of theNational Bank of Hungary should be a non-event in terms of a rate decision. Central bankers have made it clear that the cutting cycle is on hold for some time due to high financial instability, meaning too high a EUR/HUF. Numbers from the economy continue to surprise on the downside, with third-quarter GDP confirming a return to technical recession and headline inflation surprisingly holding close to the central bank's target.
EUR/HUF has repeatedly broken above 410 “Although the market was still pricing in rate hikes in late October and early November, these expectations have calmed since the US election and the market has rebuiltsome rate cuts into the longer horizon of the FRA curve. Still, the NBH does not appear to have won. While market positioning is less short on the HUF than before the US election, the market still sees EUR/HUF heading more to the upside.
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