For the President, the outcome of the Nov. 8 election is about far more than who controls the House and Senate. “In this midterm for Biden, everything’s at stake,” says Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian
Most immediately, the election will determine what Biden can get done for the rest of his term, and whether any of his remaining policy goals can go through Congress, or will have to happen, if at all, through executive orders, which future Presidents can more easily undo. Beyond that, a Republican rout would weaken Biden’s case for reelection, as well as undermine his big-picture effort to instill confidence in Americans and around the world that the U.S.
If the House falls back into Republican hands, Biden will lose more than his ability to push forward a legislative agenda that includes codifying abortion projections fromthat Republicans have promised to pursue into the business dealings of his son Hunter and his administration’s immigration policies.
Losing both chambers “will turn Biden into a shrunken president,” Brinkley says, and will “galvanize” a new generation of Democrats waiting for an opening to take over leadership of the party. In such a scenario, the prospect of Biden running for re-election could become less tenable. “To become the albatross around the neck of the Democratic Party would be an act of selfishness for Biden,” Brinkley says.
Jim Manley, a former senior communications adviser to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the Senate Democratic Caucus, says he’d support Biden’s bid for a second term. “I think he’s earned that right, but we as a party have a problem—it’s filled with senior citizens, and we’ve got to figure out a way to get around that.”
Recent polling shows that the economy is the top issue for voters going into the midterms, with 79% of voters polled in a recentsurvey saying the economy will be very important to their voting decisions. Of those rating the economy as very important, 47% preferred Republican candidates, compared to 34% that preferred Democrats. Biden’s party fared better among the 70% of voters who rate the future of democracy in the U.S.
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