How scared should House freshmen be of threats to primary them? FiveThirtyEight breaks it down:
which means their rate of defeat was only 1.4 percent. That sounds low — and it is — but remember that it’s very rare for incumbents to lose primaries, period. Only 49 House incumbents of any tenure lost their primaries during this span, period — or, in other words, about 1.1 percent of all representatives.
But a closer look at the freshman incumbents who lost renomination suggests that Ocasio-Cortez, Omar and Tlaib can probably rest a little easier: Unusual circumstances contributed to seven of the nine previous losses. Right off the bat, five of the losses can be explained by redistricting throwing the first-term incumbents into new districts. In fact, former Reps. Sandy Adams of Florida, Hansen Clarke of Michigan and Ben Quayle of Arizona in 2012 and Brian Kerns of Indiana in 2002 were all forced to run in primaries, according to Giroux’s data. Quayle even ran against a fellow first-term incumbent, so obviously one of them had to lose.in Texas pushed then-Rep.
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