As it tries to reduce water loss, SAWS says the AI model allows it to predict what pipes need replacement first.
The San Antonio Water System is using artificial intelligence software to predict which water mains are most likely to fail and to help prioritize replacements — a project that will take years and cost millions of dollars.
If the utility replaced 1% of its pipes per year, or about 80 miles, it could reduce its work orders — calls to respond to leaks and breaks — by about one-third, according to computer modeling, project engineer Adam Aranda told SAWS trustees this week. But that would cost $160 million to $220 million every year, asset management director Marty Jones said. The city-owned utility has come under heightened scrutiny for its water loss over the past year, as it reached 21 billion gallons, more than the amount of water the 142-mile Vista Ridge pipeline brings to the city. READ MORE: How SAWS is working to fix its 21 billion-gallon water loss problem About 19 billion gallons of that were considered “real losses,” from breaks and leaks. Additional losses come from firefighting, line flushing and other factors, according to a water loss audit submitted to the state. SAWS trustees have pressed the staff members for more information about how the utility is trying to bring that number down. Board members have called two special work sessions on water loss and are planning a third before they finalize the 2025 budget in November. One method in use is the AI model that SAWS officials said is helping them determine which pipes must be replaced soonest to reduce losses and cut down the number of breaks. The model takes data about SAWS' pipes — age, material, size, soil type and failure history — and uses that to predict how likely a pipe is to fail. It also looks at consequences of failure, such as interrupting critical service to a hospital, or breaking at a highway and railroad crossing, to help prioritize repairs. SAWS has been using the model since 2018, Aranda said, adding more data and fine-tuning it each year. Before that, he was manually updating a spreadsheet to make similar predictions, a slow, clunky process. The machine-learning in the AI model means it gets smarter and better at predictions over time, Jones said. READ MORE: A new weapon in SAWS’ fight against delinquent apartment owners? The utility had almost 3,000 water main breaks in 2023, in addition to about 3,000 leaks in service lines, which are smaller pipes that carry water from mains to customers. Most main breaks were in 6-inch and 8-inch mains, which are the utility’s most common size, and most were in areas with expansive soils that contract in dry weather, which causes pipes to shift and crack. SAWS has identified about 20 miles of highest-priority water mains that have had more than 1,400 breaks between 2009 and 2023, and the AI model predicts another 850 breaks from 2024 through 2027. Those breaks would result in losing about 922 acre-feet to 2,558 acre-feet of water, Jones said. One acre-foot is enough water to cover one acre in one foot of water; SAWS' total real losses in 2023 amounted to about 58,000 acre-feet. Plans are in the works to replace those highest-priority pipes, which are the “absolute worst mains in our system,” Jones said. Design work on the replacements is set to start in 2025. The earliest projected construction completion is 2027. Replacing those top priority mains is projected to get SAWS down to 30 breaks per 100 miles of pipe, he said. In 2023, that number was 36.8 per 100 miles. The utility’s five-year average is 32 breaks per 100 miles. Those 20 miles of high-priority main are scattered around the city in 144 different locations, Aranda said. Replacing them is expected to cost $40 million to 60 million, as costs are currently about $2 million to $3 million per mile. In addition to those replacements, SAWS is doing assessments this year on two of its large 48-inch mains: a full condition assessment on a line on O’Connor Road which has had multiple failures this year, and leak detection work on a transmission line that carries water from the Agua Vista Station, where Vista Ridge water is treated. READ MORE: After 11 years and $1 billion, SAWS says sewer system is better than ever Trustee David McGee said he was impressed by the presentation on methodology, but questioned what had changed and what limitations are keeping SAWS from moving faster. “Our challenge has been twofold,” Jones said: the amount of money available as SAWS has other projects to spend on, and the people needed to get the work done. “We’re pushing our engineering staff to the max, and our consultants also,” he said. “We’re trying to figure out a way to stretch the available dollars and see if we can get that break rate back down where we want it.” “That’s the challenge to us as trustees to think that through,” McGee said. “I think you’re constrained by the limitations that you think you have and that’s on us to think differently.” “It’s just not getting us there fast enough,” trustee Eduardo Parra said, asking if there were alternative repair methods to try instead. The trustees are scheduled to approve next year’s budget in November, and are expected to meet twice again before them, including another work session specifically focused on water loss. A draft budget presented in August allocated $264.5 million for water main work.
AI Marty Jones Adam Aranda David Mcgee Eduardo Parra Vista Ridge Agua Vista Station O'connor Road
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