Modern weather forecasting models are becoming increasingly sophisticated, providing higher resolution predictions that capture the nuances of complex terrain. This is crucial for accurately forecasting snowfall, especially in regions like Western Washington with diverse microclimates. As we approach the Groundhog Day Weekend snow event, high-resolution models are helping to refine the predictions, revealing more detailed snowfall totals.
Have you ever looked back at photos taken with your early cell phones? Chances are they are kind of blurry and of low quality compared to what you can easily capture today. That's because modern phones generally include much more powerful cameras, capturing photographs with incredible detail thanks to improved resolution. Our modern forecasting computer models work in a similar way. Weather models in 2025 are far more powerful and accurate than those that were available ten or 20 years ago.
Those with 'high resolution' are now readily available for weather enthusiasts to peruse online. However, those high resolution models take a LOT of computer power, and generally only run 48 to 72 hours in advance. Now that we are closing in on the chance of lowland snow for the first weekend of February, the high resolution models are helping to bring this tricky forecast into sharper focus.The American Model, known colloquially as 'The GFS' (the acronym stands for Global Forecast System) , is run on low resolution as an extended forecast going over two weeks into the future. To do so, it breaks the earth into squares that are 25 by 25 kilometers wide. These are BIG squares, relatively speaking. When that sized grid is placed over western Washington, the squares are far too big to really account for the complex topography of western Washington. While a lower resolution model like this might work out okay in a flat area like Iowa, it will struggle to grasp the intricate twists and turns between sea level at Elliott Bay and the 14,411' summit of Mt. Rainier. Using the GFS model. Kind of blurry and generalized, isn't it? The model is seeing that it's cold enough to snow, and there is moisture to work with, but it's struggling with detecting the difference between how much snow we'll across our microclimates. Regardless, it's already trying to communicate that the mountains will see a LOT of snow, while the lowlands won't see as much.However, we also have access to more powerful models. The European global model, for instance, breaks up the planet into smaller 9 kilometer squares ... similar to a more powerful camera, this model has more powerful resolution than the American model we just looked at. In this graphic, you'll see more detail as our complex terrain is getting more consideration. There are even better resolution models available. We are close enough to this weekend snow event that the 4 kilometer version of the GRAF is available. Notice the much more detailed contours accounting for the higher snow expected between now and noon on Sunday in the mountains, but the lighter amounts forecast by the model for the lowlands. From the peak of Mt. Si to the valley carved by Hood Canal, the smaller squares used by this model are seeing the complexities of our terrain. Like a camera breaking a photograph into more and more pixels, the higher resolution forecasting models can focus on the intricacies of our complicated maritime-to-mountains location. All of the big models, including the GFS and the Euro, will crank out their versions of 'high resolution forecasts' as we close in on the Groundhog Day Weekend snow. These snapshots showcased here are just through noon on Sunday; more snow is likely Sunday night into Monday, and the totals will vary widely throughout western Washington. We'll share the focused forecasts for the entire event as they become available
Weather Forecast Snow High-Resolution Models Western Washington Topography Microclimates
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