Has the Presidential Election Become a Game of Random Chance?

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Has the Presidential Election Become a Game of Random Chance?
2024 Presidential ElectionUncertaintyKamala Harris
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Jay Caspian Kang writes about how, in the 2024 Presidential election, there is an uncertainty comes from an inability to grasp and prioritize an optimal series of choices.

I was thinking about Galfond recently because, in the 2024 election, which is now less than four weeks away, we have found ourselves in a blinkered version of those poker videos, where every decision probably can be justified in one way or another. Sometimes Kamala Harris should come out with a strong statement of leadership about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Sometimes she should defer to Joe Biden.

On November 5th, when the election needle at the Times finally comes to rest, we will manufacture a bunch of reasons why Trump or Harris won, or, more likely, why one of them lost, and those narratives will either disappear within a couple of days or calcify into the prevailing political wisdom.

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2024 Presidential Election Uncertainty Kamala Harris Donald Trump Voters

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