Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.
Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift. Gold’s surge above $5,000 an ounce is increasingly seen as a durable regime shift, with investors treating the metal as a persistent hedge against geopolitical risk, central bank demand and a weaker dollar.
Bitcoin is stuck near $87,000 in a low-conviction market, as on-chain data show older holders selling into rallies, newer buyers absorbing losses and a heavy supply overhang capping moves toward $100,000. Derivatives and prediction markets point to continued consolidation in bitcoin and sustained strength in gold, with thin futures volumes, subdued leverage and weak demand for higher-beta crypto assets like ether reinforcing the cautious tone.Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, seeGold’s breakout above $5,000 is beginning to look less like a spike and more like a regime shift, as bitcoin drifts sideways around $87,000 in the early hours of Hong Kong trading, in a low-conviction market that continues to struggle with internal supply dynamics.In its latest report, CryptoQuant says bitcoin holders have started selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older buyers exiting positions and newer holders stepping in, a pattern that typically marks a market moving into consolidation rather than acceleration. Glassnode says the market is being held back by supply, with rallies repeatedly running into sellers near the prices where recent buyers originally bought in. Options and prediction markets reinforce that view: the market is pricing gold’s strength as persistent while fading expectations for a near-term resurgence in bitcoin rally. Glassnode writes that the price continues to stall below key short-term holder cost bases near $98,000, with a dense supply overhang above $100,000 – meaning there are enough sellers at higher levels to cap rallies and make a sustained move above $100k difficult in the near term. Recent rallies have drawn out breakeven sellers and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated during the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping upside fragile.Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is subdued, and recent price movements have occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside expanding participation., traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting that bitcoin sees further consolidation before any renewed upside.Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, thin participation, and subdued leverage keep rallies vulnerable to renewed distribution.Ether is underperforming bitcoin, with price action reflecting weak demand, muted derivatives participation, and little sign that investors are rotating meaningfully back into higher beta crypto assets.Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce as investors piled into the metal amid rising geopolitical flashpoints, sustained central bank buying, and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global risk.Japan’s Nikkei slid as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese stocks while other regional benchmarks moved unevenly.KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line., reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.Strive upsized its SATA follow on offering beyond $150 million, pricing the perpetual preferred at $90. The structure offers a blueprint for replacing fixed maturity convertibles with perpetual equity capital that removes refinancing risk. Strategy has a $3 billion convertible tranche due in June 2028 with a $672.40 conversion price, which could be addressed using a similar preferred equity approach.Jan 24, 2026
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