GBP/USD Inflation Trade: Bearish Cable Setup Contingent Upon Softer UK CPI

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GBP/USD Inflation Trade: Bearish Cable Setup Contingent Upon Softer UK CPI
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April’s CPI print for last year kicked off a period of hotter CPI. With markets now pricing in a 50% chance of a June cut, will the all-important April print move the odds?

Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.13% FTSE 100...data is expected to drop for both headline and core measures but the consensus estimate for the headline measure anticipates a massive drop from 3.2% to 2.1%. Such a lofty expectation could see the figure land up disappointing the market but a small miss to the upside would still represent phenomenal progress.

The upper wicks and small candle bodies could be symptomatic of waning bullish momentum with the potential to move lower, given the right catalyst. Should prices find a ceiling at 1.2736, a move to the downside remains constructive upon a better-than-expected CPI print. Thehas enjoyed a period of gains against the dollar since the lower US CPI print for April. Consider the short bias invalidated at 1.2800, with support at 1.2585.

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