Forex Analysis by Fawad Razaqzada covering: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, FTSE 100, US Dollar Index Futures. Read Fawad Razaqzada's latest article on Investing.com
off their earlier lows, albeit modestly. The GBP/USD has not gone anywhere fast in the past several weeks, although it does face a potentially volatile week with the upcoming Bank of England rate decision, UKand retail sales, and global PMI data all on tap later this week. Plus, there is the added uncertainty from the upcoming UK general election.
But they came in at just +0.2% while the previous reading was revised lower to -0.2%. Core retail sales were seen rising 0.2% on the month. However, this too disappointed with a print of -0.1% and April was revised to show a drop of 0.1% instead of a 0.2% rise reported initially. In contrast, the Tories have offered a variety of tax cuts, which could be inflationary. These include a further 2% cut to national insurance and abolishing it altogether for self-employed workers. They have also promised to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes worth up to £425,000.
With wages and services inflation still around 6%, the fight against inflation continues. The BoE is therefore unlikely to make a move yet. It is seen cutting rates in August, according to nearly all of 65 economists polled by Reuters, and most of them expect at least one more reduction this year. If it provides a clear hint of an August cut, then this may hurt the pound in immediate response. However, the risk is the BoE may appear more hawkish.
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