Forex Analysis by Fawad Razaqzada covering: EUR/USD, US Dollar Index. Read Fawad Razaqzada's latest article on Investing.com
has been trading inside tight ranges in the last few days due to the lack of any fresh major catalysts and a holiday across most of mainland Europe on Monday. There are no major US data scheduled for today either, although there will be plenty of Fed peak that could potentially impact the US dollar.
This month, most of the data releases have surprised negatively, including the monthly jobs data, the forward-looking manufacturing and services PMIs, as well as data ranging from retail sales to building permits and housing starts. Even inflation data was a tad cooler. However, several Fed officials that have spoken this week, including Michael Ball and Philip Jefferson, have cautioned that inflation was not cooling as quickly as expected.
This will be especially the case if the trend of disappointing data continues. If so, then one could assume that inflation may ease more rapidly moving forward, reducing the need to keep monetary policy tight for an extended period of time.This week, the EUR/USD traders will primarily focus on global PMI data, with particular attention on the Eurozone.
Are we finally going to see a return to growth in manufacturing PMIs after nearly two years of sub-50 readings for German, French, and UK manufacturers? Even if the pace of contraction slows more than expected, it would still be positive news given the sector's poor performance in recent years.At the time of writing, the EUR/USD was consolidating inside what looked like a bull flag continuation pattern.
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