Limited demand from ultra-wealthy customers and unsustainable operating costs have exposed the market's fundamental scalability problems.
Ron Rosano is one of the world’s most dedicated space tourists. A 65-year-old property manager from San Francisco, he completed a short trip aboard a Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. space plane in 2023 and until recently was expecting to fly more than 60 miles above the Earth on one of Jeff Bezos-founded Blue Origin LLC’s New Shepard rockets.
Rosano has had to change his plans, though, following a surprise move by Blue Origin in January to halt tourism flights for no less than two years. Rosano’s disappointed: “I had painted a pretty large picture of what that might mean for me,” he said. “Seeing the Earth from that perspective: It’s humbling. It’s life-changing.” Companies like Virgin Galactic and Scaled Composites LLC envisioned a booming market for space tourism when said in the early 2000s they would launch humans into suborbital space. Space tourism will become a “multi-billion-dollar industry,” said Eric Anderson, co-founder of the space exploration company Space Adventures Inc., in a 2003 issue of Space Times. Now, the industry’s in crisis. In addition to Blue Origin pausing flights, Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic hasn’t flown since June 2024 as it works to develop its new Delta spacecraft. Virgin Galactic will release its fourth quarter and full-year earnings for 2025 on March 30. The company’s share price is down more than 98% since its debut in October 2019 through a merger with a listed entity. “Tourism hasn’t really materialized as a market. We certainly have had a number of tourist-sponsored missions, but those have been limited, and we haven’t seen recurring demand for them,” said Dana Weigel, NASA’s International Space Station program manager, during a March 24 presentation in Washington. Issues include limited demand and technology that takes years to scale, even as the addressable market is limited, said Eric Zhu, an aerospace and defense analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. “The fundamental problem is scalability and cost,” he said. “The industry is targeting an extremely narrow slice of ultra-high-net-worth individuals, but even that cohort doesn’t generate repeat business.” Virgin Galactic has sent 31 passengers to space and Blue Origin has sent 98 , including an all-female crew that flew last year with Katy Perry, CBS News anchor Gayle King and Jeff Bezos’ wife Lauren Sánchez Bezos. That flight prompted backlash online after Perry sang during the flight and kissed the ground upon reentry. The first space tourist, Dennis Tito, flew aboard a Soyuz spacecraft in 2001. Russian rockets have taken nine commercial passengers to space but none since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Roscosmos, the country’s equivalent of NASA, wants to resume tourist flights to a proposed Russian space station, but the “stigma” from Perry’s trip hasn’t eased, said Robert English, director of central European studies at the University of Southern California. The flight “was an obvious target for critics,” he said, “because you kiss the Earth after surviving a long, harrowing, heroic journey — not after a billionaire’s brief bus ride.” Virgin Galactic expects to launch the first test flight for its Delta spacecraft by the end of 2026. Responding to a request for comment, the company declined to disclose ticket prices or other information before the upcoming results announcement. Previously Virgin Galactic had been charging about $600,000 for seats on the new spacecraft. Blue Origin’s prices are not publicly available, but Craig Curran, president of the DePrez Group of Travel Companies in Rochester, N.Y. , estimates a ticket price of approximately $1.5 million to $2 million. “There really is no suborbital space tourism market right now,” he said. “In terms of having an actual product, we’re in a wait-and-see for Virgin Galactic to become operational.” Branson has said he wants to fill the gap left by Blue Origin. “The space launch later this year is going to be really important, particularly now that Blue Origin seems to have bowed out of putting people into space,” Branson said on March 4 via livestream to a space conference in London. Blue Origin hasn’t said it’s finished with space tourism. “I think we’ll likely go back into that business, but at the moment in time right now, it just makes more sense to focus on the moon,” said Dave Limp, the chief executive of Blue Origin, on Feb. 17 at the Defense Tech Summit in West Palm Beach, Fla. When reached for comment, Blue Origin referred to a news release regarding the New Shepard pause. Chinese companies have announced plans to pursue space tourism. Beijing Interstellar Human Spaceflight Technology Co., wants to fly tourists in 2028 for the price of 3 million yuan . Rocket manufacturer and flight service provider CAS Space Technology Co. is targeting crewed space tourism flights by 2029, according to the company. “They’re signaling ‘we’re going to compete,’” said Rachel Fu, professor in the department of tourism, hospitality and event management at the University of Florida. The industry may see a revival if Elon Musk’s SpaceX succeeds with Starship, its huge reusable rocket now under development. Starship could cut the cost of putting a person in orbit by 90%, according to Fu. “Space tourism was never meant to remain a niche luxury product,” she said. “The small initial customer pool functions as a financial and technological bridge toward a longer-term goal: lowering the cost of access to space and expanding commercial activity beyond Earth.” Smillie writes for Bloomberg.
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