Need to Know: Earnings, jobs and all the reasons stock bears are wrong
U.S. markets are eyeing a weaker open, with investors taking little notice of President Donald Trump’s reassuring words on the trade dispute with China. Instead, eyes are turning to today’s economic data on retail sales, industrial production and housing.
Last year, when it came time for J.P. Morgan’s Global Equity Strategy team to put forward their 2019 predictions, they did not drink the Kool-Aid. Many analysts anticipated a slowdown in global markets in the second half of this year, and while there’s still plenty of time for it to materialize, signs of trouble are scarce.
2) Unemployment is nowhere to be seen. Jobless figures rising tends to happen before downturns, but as of April, the current U.S. unemployment rate is 3.6%, the lowest since 1969. Our analysts are at pains to caution that some sort of pullback in the summer months is to be expected given how stocks have advanced this year, and trade undeniably remains a wild card, they say. But they are reasonably confident that “growth trends will firm up as we move into the 2nd half of the year.” And because they predict that bond yields will move higher, banks — who are often the main beneficiaries of higher yields — are a good place to settle as we move into the end of 2019.
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