Republicans will face an uphill battle to get a second party-line megabill across the finish line before the midterm elections. Here's why.
Republicans have been weighing for months about what they would include in a second tax and spending bill and, most recently, are considering putting elements of a voter ID bill President Donald Trump wants to see passed into the party-line budget bill.
Democrats and Republicans oppose shutdown deal that does not fund ICE deportationseven if it takes the remainder of the 119th Congress. The SAVE America Act is expected to fail in the Senate, which is debating the legislation. But Republicans are eyeing the inclusion of elements of the legislation into reconciliation as a means of getting it across the finish line instead. However, the president, who has said Republicans do not need a second bill, remains skeptical of the idea, telling reporters Tuesday, “We’ll see about reconciliation.” But, even as Republicans plot a path forward, getting a second budget bill through both chambers of Congress and onto Trump’s desk is facing four obstacles.The margin is a top concern for House Speaker Mike Johnson on any legislation that reaches the House floor, but especially with any bill passing through reconciliation. When the first reconciliation bill passed, Republicans had a three-seat majority. Two Republican members, Reps. Thomas Massie and Brian Fitzpatrick , voted against the bill. But now Johnson is operating with a one-seat majority, and Massie is all but assured to be a “no” vote. Along with margins not in the speaker’s favor, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith , who helped do much of the heavy lifting during the first reconciliation process, publicly expressed doubt that another reconciliation bill can be passed. “If you look at history, it is extremely rare for two partisan reconciliation bills to ever pass in the same Congress, extremely rare,” Smith said. “And so I would absolutely love a second reconciliation bill. I would love that, but I just don’t think it will ever happen.” Smith said he knows “the members” and that the votes just were not there at the moment for another big tax and spending bill.The parliamentary rules governing reconciliation are narrow and tailored to spending, meaning that Republicans would likely be rebuffed if they tried to include a national voter ID mandate outright. Due to these restrictions, House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil outlined some provisions to skirt the Senate parliamentarian’s wrath. Steil’s proposals would provide federal tax dollars to states that implementlaws and require proof of citizenship for voter registration — two policies the SAVE America Act would require states to implement outright.But this proposal will likely not appease the major advocates of the SAVE America Act, as it gives financial incentives instead of mandates. “Now, Senate R’s claim they will pass SAVE America Act via reconciliation , which would… *checks notes* …allow Democrats to offer unlimited amendments,” the House Freedom Caucus. “This is gaslighting. The American people are not stupid and will not accept more failure theater from Republicans in Congress. PASS THE SAVE AMERICA ACT NOW.”Along with the SAVE America Act framework, Republicans have floated passing a supplemental funding bill for the conflict in Iran through reconciliation as well. “I want to support the president in carrying out those aims, but we’re not just going to throw money at a way without knowing what the mission and the mission and the end result is and how long we might have boots on the ground and how it’s going to be paid for,” Rep. Chip Roy told theWar Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed last week that the Pentagon is seeking at least $200 billion in additional federal funding for the Iran war. “As you know, I’m very insistent upon a reconciliation package, and we’re trying to find the final provisions of it everybody can agree to,” Johnson told reporters last week. “I think defense spending could be a part of that, but we have to wait. You know the details are coming together.”Republicans have just over seven months before the midterm elections, during which the House historically flips to the party out of the White House, as it has for the last five presidencies. This leaves Republicans with a very short time frame to pass a major piece of legislation, all while members face primary elections over the next several months, along with multiple weeks of recess to allow them to be back in their home states campaigning.House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington , who is retiring after this term, said he thinks the time is now, because it was unlikely a reconciliation bill could move after the spring. “The closer we get to November, the more sensitive some of our members will be, but right now, I totally see a path, and it won’t be as comprehensive as the first one,” Arrington said earlier this month.
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