Real estate analyst Nick Gerli predicts significant price declines in Florida and Texas housing markets due to a surge in inventory, while the Northeast continues to see price appreciation. Gerli attributes this shift to the slowdown in in-migration post-pandemic and a previous construction boom driven by increased demand.
A surge in inventory in Florida and Texas is likely to cause significant price declines in the two states' housing market s, according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, while home prices in the Northeast are still appreciating. Gerli, CEO of real estate analytics tool Reventure App, wrote on X on Monday that the Florida and Texas 'dominos have fallen.' This refers to the cooling of these once-booming markets. Why this matters is rooted in the pandemic-driven housing boom.
Florida and Texas saw an influx of people from colder, more expensive regions, leading to a construction surge. However, in-migration has slowed since the pandemic, and these markets, which exploded during the health emergency, are now facing the most dramatic cooldowns in the country. According to data from Reventure App, Florida and Texas had a total of 261,000 active listings combined in January 2025, 207 percent more than the number reported in the entire Northeast. The states in the Northeast reported a combined 85,000 active listings in the same month. Gerli noted that 'Prior to the pandemic, these regions were the same,' adding that the gap between them 'highlights the very bifurcated nature of this housing market. The downturn is happening in TX/FL, but we are still suffering a historic inventory shortage in the Northeast.' Gerli believes that the potential downturn in the Texas and Florida housing markets is being underreported because 'many real estate outlets don't want to admit the TX/FL dominos have fallen, as those are the states with the most realtors, investors, wholesalers, and people who buy housing market-related.' He contrasts this with the Northeast, which has 'little investor and realtor activity' compared to Florida and Texas, 'so it's not much of a sell to talk about the outperformance.'Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek that she expects Florida and Texas to be the best markets for U.S. homebuyers this year: 'Buyers in the weaker Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas may be able to negotiate the best deal and have the most selection. In other markets, inventory will be lower and there will be less room to negotiate.'Moody's Analytics economist Matthew Walsh previously told Newsweek that the overvaluation of Florida during the pandemic makes the state an interesting one to watch this year for buyers: 'Home prices there have risen very quickly and have kind of exceeded the pace we would expect home prices to grow at given economic fundamentals in the state for that income growth and household formation. And that disconnect really does weigh on prices when demand starts to cool.' A downturn of the Florida and Texas markets is not all doom and gloom for Gerli; in fact, the real estate analyst said, it represents an opportunity for these two states. 'What many in the real estate industry fail to realize is that a downturn in the Sun Belt will actually be a good thing for the housing market in the long-term,' Gerli said. 'Because more inventory and cheaper prices will ultimately be what draws buyers back into the market.' In order to attract homebuyers back in the market, Gerli wrote, prices need to come down. 'For prices to drop, inventory levels need to go up enough to force sellers into meaningful price reductions. In South and Texas/Florida more specifically, that's happening,' he said. 'In Northeast, it's not. Too few homes for sale means high competition and even bidding wars, still.
Housing Market Florida Texas Inventory Price Declines Northeast Real Estate Analyst Pandemic In-Migration
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