Fed rate cut by year-end back in favour as banks are roiled

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Fed rate cut by year-end back in favour as banks are roiled
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Pricing on swaps linked to Fed meetings suggest traders now expect that the central bank’s policy rate will peak near 5.4pc in July, and end the year near 5.1pc.

Bond traders are quickly lowering their expectations for how high the Federal Reserve will push the borrowing costs — while also once again fully pricing in a rate cut from the peak level by year-end — as banking sector concerns mount.

To varying degrees, shareholders punished the entire banking sector. Financial companies in the S&P 500 are down about 7 per cent as a group on the week.a reaction to Fed chairman Jerome Powell seeming to open the door to a re-acceleration in the pace of rate hikes Fed officials “do have to pay attention to this because something is apparently starting to break, and they have raised rates a lot”, said Tony Farren, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. “The reaction to Powell was way too aggressive.”

“It appears that the fear of a hard landing is starting to be built back into rate expectations,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “Bank stress may be seen as a sign that monetary policy is working to tighten conditions, albeit with a lag.”

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