The scale of the task facing Rishi Sunak is clear
been 17 elections in Britain since the start of 1959 and the ruling Conservative Party has been successful in ten of them. The next one is almost certain to take place in the second half of this year. It is safe to say that the Tories are very unlikely to add to their victory tally: they currently trail Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, by 20 percentage points in the polls.
If all that sounds bad enough for Mr Sunak, the real picture may be even worse. The biggest determinant of the final composition of Parliament is the nationwide gap between Labour and the Conservatives; our model translates that into seat counts pretty reliably. But it does not take into account the full possibilities of tactical voting or very local factors such as the attention that parties’ campaign managers will give to particular seats.
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