The small uptick in the US Dollar (USD) caused the USD Index (DXY) to print humble gains and remain close to the 106.00 zone at the beginning of the week.
EUR/USD started the week on a positive note. The focus now shifts to Powell and key US data releases. Attention will also be on the second round of French elections. The small uptick in the US Dollar caused the USD Index to print humble gains and remain close to the 106.00 zone at the beginning of the week. That said, the modest advance in the Greenback prompted EUR/USD to give away part of the strong earlier advance to multi-day peaks near 1.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a probability of around 65% for lower interest rates in September versus a nearly 93% chance at the December 18 meeting. In the short term, the recent ECB rate cut, compared to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, has widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially leading to further weakness in EUR/USD.
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