The third-seeded Illini are heavily favored to take down the 14th-seeded Quakers, but how confident are the advanced numbers in Illinois?
The NCAA Tournament is such a special event because it breaks trends, curbs expectations and, sometimes, simply defies basketball logic. Upsets are the name of the game come March, which means everyone – regardless of seeding – is vulnerable.
. An easy contest to overlook, the Illini-Quakers matchup is an afterthought in the minds of most college hoops fans and experts – but it’s not for Illinois head coach Brad Underwood. “You have to get your guys to understand you’re playing a champion,” Underwood said on Sunday night. “You’re playing a team who cut down a net or has been in a power conference and been through a lot of the same battles. So never underestimate anybody. … So shame on you and shame on us if we overlook anybody.”Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood greets the crowd before the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images Although that is undoubtedly the message every coach should be sending his club heading into March Madness, it’s not a sentiment backed by the analytics. Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, Illinois has a 97.3 percent chance of taking down Penn in the Round of 64.Objectively, the Quakers do appear to not belong on any floor within a 100-mile radius of this Illini team. They lost by 25 points to Providence and by 27 to Villanova, although Penn did push Rutgers – which finished No. 14 out of 18 Big Ten teams – falling by just a point. Penn ranks No. 150 overall in KenPom, with an offense that ranks outside the top 200 – a bit unexpected considering its head coach is Fran McCaffery – and a defense outside the top 100. Top things off with an extremely undersized lineup, and there is practically zero way this Quakers club competes with the Illini – the tallest team in the nation. Nov 11, 2025; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Penn Quakers head coach Fran McCaffery reacts to game action during the first half against the Providence Friars at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn ImagesMarch. Crazier things have happened. Just one example: UMBC was a 16 seed that climbed up to No. 166 in KenPomWith that in mind, don't bet the house on anything at this time of year. That said, ESPN's numbers-crunching machine giving the Illini a chance north of 95 percent to win this game is hardly going out on a limb.Primarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.3 First Impressions of Illinois Women's Basketball's NCAA Tournament Draw
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