Derek Saul is a New Jersey-based Senior Reporter on Forbes' news team. He graduated in 2021 from Duke University, where he majored in Economics and served as sports editor for The Chronicle, Duke's student newspaper, joining Forbes soon thereafter.
With polls closing in mere hours, betting markets firmly favor former President Donald Trump to secure a second presidential term, though poll-based prediction models indicate the candidates are locked in a: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site leans the heaviest toward Trump, giving him 61% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 39% as of about 4 p.m. EST.
The difference between betting market odds and poll-based prediction models has been a major subject of debate in recent weeks, with somebetting markets are a better predictor as bettors are financially incentivized to wager on the candidate more likely to win and skepticsSites offer users contracts whose prices are tied to the real-time, market-implied odds of a certain candidate. Each contract pays out $1 if the bettor opted for the winning candidate and $0 if their wager was incorrect.
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