The success of the Haley presidential campaign will still be predicated upon whether the rest of the field coalesces around her to defeat Trump
Republican candidate Nikki Haley talks with media in the “Spin Room” after the second GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA, Wednesday, September 27, 2023. The most recent public polling of the Republican presidential race in Iowa shows former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley tied for second with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, somebehind Trump.
Whether it be Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, or Ted Cruz in 2016, the winner of the Iowa GOP caucuses in recent times has not fit Haley’s mainstream Republican mold.
In no way do these present challenges mean that Haley cannot win, but rather suggest that she faces substantial and significant headwinds in closing the gap with the former president, who still dominates the race. Although the deficit appears to be less substantial in Iowa than the gap seen in national polling, it does suggest how high the bar is for her to achieve the kind of electoral success that would bring her into the New Hampshire primary with momentum and broad, national enthusiasm.
Even if everything swings Haley’s way and she continues to ride the current momentum into the new year, the success of the Haley presidential campaign will still be predicated upon whether the rest of the field coalesces around her to defeat Trump. If this consolidation does not materialize prior to the February primary in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, it is very likely Donald Trump will walk his way to a third straight GOP presidential nomination.
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