Perspective: Cuba is nearing breaking point, with its Communist system unlikely to survive in its current form.
Cuba may be entering its most consequential moment since the collapse of the Soviet Union. A deepening economic crisis, rolling blackouts, mass migration and growing unrest have converged with something even more significant: direct negotiations with the United States over the island’s future.
The crisis is increasingly being shaped by a more aggressive U.S. approach. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who himself is Cuban American, has orchestrated negotiations with Havana officials while overseeing a pressure campaign aimed at forcing political and economic concessions. "It needs to change dramatically because it is the only chance that it has to improve the quality of life for its people," Rubio said last month. President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to"the honor of taking Cuba," describing the island as a"weakened nation" amid a total power grid collapse triggered by an oil blockade. He said last month that the Cuban Revolution faces is biggest test yet. The pressure campaign in Cuba follows the U.S. removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Havana’s key oil lifeline, and comes as Washington escalates its war on Iran following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an airstrike.The New York Times , while stopping short of demanding full regime change. The goal appears to be a managed transformation—one that mirrors aspects of what Washington attempted in Venezuela, but without the chaos of total collapse. Cuba may not collapse overnight. But this increasingly looks like the moment its system stops functioning as it once did. The model built by Fidel Castro of tight state control sustained by external support has been weakening for years. Now, with Venezuelan aid cut off, the economy in free fall and U.S. pressure intensifying, that system is beginning to give way. This does not necessarily mean Communist rule ends tomorrow. But it does point to the end of Communist Cuba as it has existed for decades: stable, centralized and capable, at least minimally, of providing for its population. Whether change comes through reform, unrest or slow decline, the old model is no longer sustainable.The most likely outcome currently seems to be a leadership reshuffle that leaves the system largely intact. Díaz-Canel, and other aging officials closely tied to Fidel Castro, could be moved aside as part of a negotiated deal. The U.S. has signaled that removing the Cuban president could unlock economic reforms long blocked by hard-liners. But the core power structure—the Communist Party, the military and the state-run business networks that dominate the economy—would almost certainly remain in place. In that scenario, a more pragmatic insider would take over. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, a technocrat who rose through the tourism sector and maintains ties to military-linked business interests, is one possible successor. He could play the role Delcy Rodríguez is doing in Venezuela. Vice President Salvador Valdés Mesa, a veteran party loyalist with decades in the Communist hierarchy, represents a more traditional continuity option. Another possibility is a figure drawn from the military or Raúl Castro’s inner circle, presenting himself as a"reformer" while offering only limited concessions. The goal would be clear: modest market reforms, selective political adjustments and a gradual opening to U.S. business. It would be a system closer to Vietnam’s model than a genuine political transition.A second scenario is more unpredictable: a genuine political opening triggered by unrest or total economic collapse. Cuba is already under extreme pressure. A U.S.-imposed oil blockade has sharply reduced fuel supplies, crippling the economy and contributing to nationwide blackouts, food shortages and rising anger. Protests are becoming more frequent and more confrontational as daily life deteriorates.If that pressure overwhelms the state, Cuba could move quickly toward some form of rapid political transition. But unlike Eastern Europe in 1989, there is no organized opposition ready to assume power. Decades of repression, exile and fragmentation have left the country without a clear alternative leadership. New figures could emerge in the vacuum. Dissidents such as José Daniel Ferrer and artists‑turned‑activists like Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara have visibility inside the country, while exile leaders, such as María Payá, could return to help shape a transitional process. There is also a hybrid outcome. A reform‑minded insider, potentially backed by the military, could take charge temporarily—overseeing elections and managing a controlled transition, similar to those seen in Spain and parts of Latin America. The risks are high. Venezuela shows how economic collapse combined with outside pressure can produce prolonged instability rather than democratic change. Iran, meanwhile, illustrates how regimes under sustained external pressure can harden rather than fall.3. Slow Decline, Mass ExodusIn this scenario, the regime survives, but the country, cut off from Venezuelan oil after Maduro’s removal and pushed into a full-blown energy crisis, weakens further still. To stay afloat, Havana increasingly turns to external backers, particularly Russia and China. Moscow can offer political support and some energy relief, while China has become a key economic partner, investing in infrastructure and keeping trade flowing. But neither is likely to provide enough support to fully stabilize the economy. The result is a system that endures but continues to hollow out. The state keeps control, but becomes more dependent on remittances, informal markets and foreign partners. Public services decline further, and the social contract that sustained the revolution continues to breakdown.What happens next will depend as much on Washington as Havana. The Trump administration, driven by Rubio, clearly has Cuba in its sights and is pushing for reforms through sustained economic pressure. As seen in Venezuela and elsewhere, it has shown a willingness to use financial chokeholds to force political outcomes. That strategy is now being applied with growing intensity. The result is that the survival of Communist Cuba, as it has existed for decades, looks increasingly unlikely. The system is under too much strain, both internally and externally. The real question is no longer whether it changes but what replaces it, and how disruptive that transition will be.'s Director of Politics and Culture and editor of theis offering a new service to allow you to communicatewith me in the form of a text message chat. You can sign up and get a direct line to me, as well as the reporters who work for me. You can shape our coverage.member, we're offering this service to you for free. You can sign up below, or read more about how it works
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