Consumers — at least in the near term — continue to believe inflation will recede alongside a resilient labor market.
, which would pressure the Fed to signal that even if it leaves rates unchanged Wednesday, hikes aren't necessarily done.Consumers — at least in the near term — continue to believe inflation will recede alongside a resilient labor market, according to theOver the next year, Americans' median inflation expectations fell to 4.1% — a 0.3 percentage point decline from April and the lowest level since May 2021 .
But consumers are still confident about the broader state of the labor market; they see very low odds of being laid off over the next 12 months. The mean perceived probability of losing one's job registered the lowest reading since April 2022 — and is only 0.1 percentage point above the all-time low.The survey points to some signs of tighter credit conditions. Following the three bank failures earlier this year, a larger share of consumers in May said it is difficult to obtain credit now compared to a year ago. More anticipate tighter credit over the next year.Forecasters expect that overall CPI rose 0.2% in May, slowing from the 0.
But economists say core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise by 0.4% — the same pace as the prior two months, as price increases for used cars and rents stay sticky.
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