Reductions in the likelihood for blackouts ranged from about 40% fewer with about 10 gigawatts of interconnections up to 82% fewer with 50 gigawatts shared.
If the Texas power grid had been connected to neighboring systems in early 2021, the likelihood of deadly blackouts during Winter Storm Uri would have been reduced up to 82%, according to a new study by researchers at the Mass achusetts Institute of Technology.
Their study modeled the February 2021 storm and the likelihood of outages if legislation that would require the Texas power grid to expand interconnections to grids in surrounding states had then been enacted. The process, which could take a decade or more to complete, has long been opposed by Texas politicians and bureaucrats who say it would bring the state under greater federal oversight. But earlier this year, U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, an Austin Democrat, co-sponsored a bill to do just that. RELATED: ERCOT boss tees off on Democrats’ effort to connect Texas to national power grids “MIT’s findings really prove what everyday people in San Antonio and Texas have known for a long time,” Casar said Monday. “We didn’t have to lose so much power, money and lives in Winter Storm Uri.” Researchers in MIT’s new Climate Policy Center modeled what would happen if Texas got hit by another storm like the one that led to blackouts and hundreds of deaths across Texas — but this time 11 years from now with parts of the “Connect the Grid Act” implemented. In addition to slashing outages, the study showed increasing the number of connections to other grids could bring cost savings and lower emissions. Right now, about 90% of Texas is on an independent grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Declining risks In general, the MIT study found that increasing the amount of shared transmission reduces the risk for outages. It modeled varying amounts of gigawatts between the Texas tie-ins with surrounding systems already outlined in Casar’s bill, which calls for the interconnections to be completed by 2035. It found reductions in the likelihood of blackouts ranged from about 40% fewer than in 2021’s storm with about 10 gigawatts of interconnections up to 82% fewer if as much as 50 gigawatts was shared. The models also took into account the ways capacity, demand and generation resources are anticipated to change over the next decade, said Juan Senga, a researcher with MIT’s new Climate Policy Center. The study also mirrored the generation outages caused by the February 2021 storm, such as those at coal- and natural gas-fired plants. “I think one of the biggest takeaways here is that just having more transmission, based on our findings, would lead to lower amounts of outages in Texas,” Senga said. That came as no surprise to Casar. “We all have relatives or friends in Jasper and El Paso who are interconnected to the national grid and didn’t have the mass outages we did while our communities froze,” he said. RELATED: ERCOT’s calls for Texans to conserve power not likely to end anytime soon as grid stays stretched Mass outages stretched over five days, contributing to the deaths of at least 246 Texans. The MIT researchers reached out to Casar, who represents parts of Austin, San Antonio and other areas, with the data after having done similar research for a different House bill regarding interregional connections. The center’s director says it aims to work closely with policy makers to analyze existing and potential legislation. “What we’re trying to do is provide policymakers with data,” MIT Climate Policy Center Director Christopher Knittel said. “Obviously, there’s pressure not to interconnect. And we just want policymakers to know what the trade-off are from interconnecting or not interconnecting. And hopefully they can make a better decision.” Regulator’s response The Public Utility Commission of Texas, which oversees ERCOT, said Monday it would be “premature to comment on the proposed legislation” because it could change. PUC spokesperson Ellie Breed said the ERCOT grid is “more operationally reliable today than it has ever been” due to reforms implemented after the winter storm, including weatherization and backup fuel supply requirements. “Over the past three years, thanks to these reforms, the ERCOT grid has operated reliably through dozens of daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal, and all-time summer and winter demand records without any systemwide disruption in service,” she said. But Senga said his modeling shows about 25 gigawatts of interconnection could hit a sweet spot for the Texas market, with positive financial implications, cumulative lower emissions and reduced possibility of blackouts. EXPRESS-NEWS EDITORIAL: Casar’s grid proposal would keep the power running in Texas At that amount, he said Texas would see a major increase grid reliability and hit an optimal savings between the costs of transmission and new revenue exporting power. The national grid as a whole would also get cost savings and Texas generators would be able to sell excess energy from wind or solar farms to other states. In February, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas questioned whether interconnections would help Texas economically. He said he’d rather see money spent within the state, such as on building power plants within Texas. He warned of a “chilling of new generation investment” within Texas borders under major interconnection changes. Casar and the researchers balk at that claim, saying interconnection would benefit Texas generators economically. “The MIT study shows it’s commonsense economically,” Casar said. “Commonsense if you want to save power, save lives and save money, rather than be a vulnerable island like we are now.”
ERCOT The Public Utility Commission Of Texas Climate Policy Center House MIT Climate Policy Center PUC Greg Casar Juan Senga Ellie Breed Pablo Vegas Texans Austin Democrat Democrats Christopher Knittel Texas San Antonio Climate Policy Center U.S. Mass Austin Jasper El Paso Winter Storm Uri Casar Connect The Grid Act
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