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) price action has been pinned between $60,000 and $70,000 over the past two months as leverage-dominant trading, weak spot market demand, and consistent losses from short-term holders have prevented rallies from sustaining their momentum.
Combined, these market events create the current fragile setup, where Bitcoin price stability depends more on futures positioning than fresh capital inflows and this explains why BTC price remains volatile within its current range., the perpetual futures market activity continues to outweigh spot participation across the major exchanges. The perp-to-spot volume ratio has climbed to 15 times , pointing to a price control largely by leveraged positioning. The funding rates oscillate between positive and negative without holding a trend, showing a lack of directional bias among futures traders.Meanwhile, the funding rate volatility has compressed to 2.9%, down from the 5% range in 2025, signaling smaller swing trades in futures positioning. The traders are still using leverage, but without any strong conviction. Together, these point to a coiling market structure, where the traders rotate within tight ranges and the funding lacks a sustained bias. This reflects indecisive and short-term leverage flows as the dominant force in the market.Related: Is $450B in Bitcoin vulnerable to the quantum threat? Analysts weigh inBitcoin spot market demand has not picked up and this is contributing to the lack of price stability. The 30-dayBitcoin apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuantare often used as a sign of future buying power, and the metric is currently near $452 million. The level is close to a two-year low, showing limited new capital entering the market.The short-term holders are adding another layer of pressure to BTC. The cohort’s realized price, or its average entry cost, is around $85,800. With Bitcoin trading far below that level, many recent buyers are holding unrealized losses.that two metrics show how this affects their behavior. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss. A value below 1 means coins are being sold at a loss. Currently, the STH SOPR has stayed below 1.0 for over 110 days, showing consistent loss-taking.At the same time, the short-term holder realized price year-on-year has dropped to -5.35%, the first negative reading since the 2022 bear market. This confirms that losses are not short-lived and have persisted over the past few months. When traders are underwater, the tendency to sell into small rallies and exit positions increases pressure and limits the upside, keeping the overall BTC market structure fragile.This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
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