While a bipartisan group of 10 U.S. senators is working to make a deal on infrastructure with President Joe Biden’s administration, analysts say investors shouldn’t expect a breakthrough.
“It’s hard to see a real path forward right now,” said Ben Koltun, director of research at Beacon Policy Advisors, in assessing the chances for the group’s proposal, which has a price tag of about $1 trillion, including $579 billion in new spending.
Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst for Raymond James, also said an infrastructure package that gets done through reconciliation without Republican support is more likely. He predicts spending of $2 trillion to $3 trillion, with enactment in the fall and about half of it paid for through tax hikes or increased enforcement of existing rules.
Meanwhile, Stifel’s Brian Gardner said in a recent note that the bipartisan group’s effort on infrastrucure “faces long odds.” Koltun isn’t impressed with the potential EV fee, noting the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that an annual levy of $100 — which is roughly what drivers of conventional vehicles pay in gasoline taxes — would bring in only $1.1 billion over five years. He also points out the White House already has voiced opposition.
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