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Barclays says the " Trump put," or the president's ability to prop up jittery markets, is losing its power.So far in the war, Donald Trump has been able to ease the market's fears with his comments and updates about potential negotiations, often driving down oil prices and fueling gains in the stock market.
"Trump's de-escalation talk has kept equities afloat. But constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to undermine the put efficacy," the analysts wrote in a Friday note.Iran is "begging" to make a deal, Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday.Yet, despite the president's assurances that negotiations with Iran are going in the US's favor, stocks were lower, and oil prices were higher during Friday's session, extending Thursday's moves. The Nadaq 100 slipped into correction territory, down more than 10% from its peak as tech continued to sell off. "The risk is that constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to seriously undermine the efficacy of the 'Trump put'. Meanwhile, the war goes on, and the longer the oil shock, the more severe the stagflationary shock," Barclays explained,Barclays' analysts noted that equities rose and oil fell on the president's comments on Monday, only to pare the moves when Trump's remarks didn't materialize. The same pattern repeated on Wednesday."This week's resilient price action suggests the 'market wants to go up,'" the analysts said. Despite the chaotic news cycle and mixed messages coming from officials, the S&P 500 is down only 2.3% and oil prices are lower for the week.
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