As tensions flare over Taiwan, China and the United States are both trying to lay down firm markers. A crucial question is whether the nuclear-armed powers know what level of pressure is just right.
Among the slew of disputes between the world's two largest economies, Taiwan is often seen as the only one that could bring hot conflict as Beijing considers the self-ruling US-aligned democracy a province awaiting reunification.
Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University and the American Enterprise Institute, said that Beijing's flights were less about preparing a near-term invasion than simply sending a message. The risk of miscalculation was recently laid bare by the top US general, Mark Milley, who testified that he called his Chinese counterpart to make clear that former president Donald Trump did not intend to attack during his turbulent final months in office.President Joe Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, discussed Taiwan during a lengthy meeting last week in Zurich with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi.
Mastro argued that such action would have little effect or even backfire as many in Beijing are convinced, despite Washington's denials, that the United States supports Taiwan's outright independence. Kuo Yujen, a political analyst at Taiwan's National Sun Yat-sen University, said US efforts starting with Trump have aimed to show Beijing that its growing assertiveness will be "counterproductive to China's purpose and the stability of the Taiwan Strait."Chinese President Xi Jinping has fanned nationalism in the face of what many in Beijing see as US decline.
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