![[ANALYSIS] Will the lockdown kill more people than COVID-19?](https://i.headtopics.com/images/2020/5/3/rapplerdotcom/analysis-will-the-lockdown-kill-more-people-than-covid-19-1256970238903672833.webp)
There is compelling evidence that economic recessions lead to higher mortality
Despite overwhelming evidence of the impacts of recessions on lives and public health, the logic is rarely extended to the unfolding lockdown-induced recession. The International Monetary Fund has warned of “a global crisis like no other” as a consequence of almost simultaneous lockdowns across countries, including the world’s largest economies, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has claimed more than 200,000 lives – and counting.
What will be the consequences of the ECQ to the broader public health? How many lives will the ECQ put at risk? Another study that looks at the impact of recession on infant mortality and elderly death gives a more alarming picture. In Mexico, a 0.4% increase in mortality for the elderly was associated with the 1995-1996 crisis, which saw Mexico’s GDP fall by -4.4%. Applying directly these numbers to the Philippines implies 1,400 excess elderly deaths.
The same studies linking recessions and unemployment to mortality also show that higher levels of public-sector expenditure on health care and universal health coverage can lower the death toll of recessions and unemployment.Going forward, fiscal support to the health sector becomes a critical issue. The need to provide income support to the population affected by the ECQ has forced the government to exceed self-imposed fiscal limits.
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